ARMY
Army welcomes in new coach Rich Ellerson after his largely successful run at Cal-Poly San Luis Obispo. The Mustangs won at least seven games in each of the last six seasons and were ranked in the top-25 of the I-AA polls in each of the last four. Last year, they beat San Diego State and narrowly missed upending Wisconsin in Madison.
Ellerson is a tremendous hire. His brother was the captain of the 1962 team at West Point, and he helped then-coach Bob Sutton install his version of the Desert Swarm defense (he was an Arizona assistant as well under Dick Tomey) for the 1996 season. That was the last time Army had a winning record, when it went 10-2 and played in the Independence Bowl. But Ellerson is mainly known for his offensive abilities, where he is largely regarded as a triple-option expert. The proof is in the numbers, as Cal-Poly led I-AA last year with 487 yards and 44 (!) points per game in 2008. Still, expect the learning curve to be a bit slow because of the lack of talent. The Black Knights will have to outhustle, outwork and outexecute their opponents if they are to win more than four games for the first time since 1997.
ASK the bookie? - Expect the Black Knights to be involved in a lot more tough and low-scoring games while Ellerson gets the most out of his out-talented group and tries to develop them at the same time. Expect three wins, and perhaps four if they can spring an upset as a DD-dog along the way.
NAVY
The US Naval Academy's football team barely missed a beat last fall under new head coach Ken Niumatalolo, who took over for his long-time boss Paul Johnson. The Midshipmen, not surprisingly, stuck with the run-oriented spread option that has now led them to six straight bowl games and Commander-in-Chief's trophies. The beat goes on at quarterback, where junior Ricky Dobbs will take over after making several relief appearances last fall. Injuries forced him to start in a 34-7 win over SMU, where rainy conditions (or SMU's inability to stop the run?) led to the first Division I-A game in 11 years where a team did not throw a pass. Don't be fooled by Dobbs's ability, however, as he threw for 28 touchdowns as a senior at his Georgia high school. Indeed, Dobbs can stretch any enemy defense that crowds the box. But his 42-carry, 224-yard, four-touchdown effort against SMU is much more likely for this team, which will continue to try to grind down opponents on offense.
The seamless transition of last season is certainly noticed, but two things signal a possible alarm toward regression. One, the Navy defense slashed more than 14 ppg off its total last year from 2007 but lose three of the four starters in the secondary. Secondly, the Midshipmen were plus-15 in turnovers last fall. This defense has guys who can make plays, but it is a bit undersized. Turnovers won't come as easy from the offenses on the slate this fall.
ASK the bookie? - With trips to Ohio State, Pittsburgh, Notre Dame and Hawaii on the slate, as well as visits from Wake Forest and much-improved Temple, getting bowl eligible and keeping the CIC trophy might not constitute a bad season, even if it results in a win or two fewer from 2008.
NOTRE DAME
Notre Dame has lost a combined 15 games in the last two years, but a maturing group and a more manageable schedule make the prospects of a big improvement quite reasonable. Charlie Weis returns for his fourth year in South Bend, and despite his claims, he's got to be well aware that his days are numbered unless he starts cranking out a top-5 or top-10 product. There can be no more excuses about coaching or recruiting from previous regimes. So while Brian Kelly (Cincinnati), Pat Fitzgerald (Northwestern), Urban Meyer (Florida), or Jon Gruden (ex-Tampa Bay Bucs) wait in the wings, Weis is coaching for his future. Lucky for him, this team appears capable of appeasing even his most staunch critics.
The offense will be led by Jimmy Clausen, who has quickly gelled with deep-ball threat Golden Tate (58 catches, 10 touchdowns in 2008). The one glaring ND weakness could be up front, where Clausen's protection was spotty, at best, last fall. The breakdowns up front often led to ill-advised decisions from Clausen, who threw an alarming 18 interceptions. Weis will again call the plays as his OC Mike Haywood left for Miami (Ohio). There can be no more excuses from Irish leader, especially if he doesn't get his winning percentage above .600 early this fall. Defense is where Notre Dame should really excel, as the Irish held eight foes to 21 or less last season and now Jon Tenuta is in his first full season of calling the shots (he shared duties in 2008). The defense will now be a 4-3 base, with blitzes coming from everywhere. That should be tenable because the Irish secondary has the potential to be outstanding.
ASK the Bookie? - The schedule appears manageable. The defense appears potentially outstanding. So why not call for 10 wins and security for Weis? The main reasons - Weis, himself, has not shown the consistent ability to manage a game when things are not going well for his team. That could bode ominous if things start to go astray for Clausen against Nevada, Michigan, Michigan State, Purdue, or Washington... all of which are games in the first five weeks ND should have a chance to win, yet COULD find a way to lose. The Irish were also outtalented at times last year (think Michigan State, Boston College, USC) and there was a large gap to close. There will rarely, if ever, be value on this team, as the alumni bet the hell out of them on a weekly basis and make the other side the 'value' side almost all time, ESPECIALLY if the Irish are good, or reputed to be good. |
