BOSTON COLLEGE
BC, despite its solid success on the field throughout this century, will have a third different head coach in four years after athletic director Gene DeFilippo shockingly fired Jeff Jagodzinski after he interviewed for the vacant New York Jets job. In steps longtime defensive coordinator Frank Spaziani, who is in his 60s. Jagodzinski won 11 games in his first season, and despite losing star quarterback Matt Ryan to Atlanta in the NFL, guided BC back to the Atlantic division crown and nine more wins last fall.
A closer look tells you it might have all been smoke-and-mirrors. The pedestrian BC attack turned the ball over 33 times, which led (or was dead-last, depending on how you look at it) in the league. And there are no returning QB candidates with any real experience. New offensive coordinator Gary Tranquill (a 69-year old journeyman who only had one job the last three years, and that was as a QB coach in NFL Europe) will certainly have his work cut out for him. So it will be rushing and defense for BC. Four offensive linemen return who started every game last fall, so that will certainly be a strength. New defensive coordinator Bill McGovern was promoted from linebackers coach. But star pupil Mark Herzlich (reigning ACC defensive player of the year) was diagnosed with bone cancer AFTER spring practice - a potentially devastating blow to the Eagle defense. Two D-linemen were drafted as well and there should be a noticeable dropoff in the middle up front.
Ask the bookie? - Unexpected losses of QB Dominique Davis (transferred in June after becoming academically suspended) and Herzlich are going to make things even tougher on Spaziani, whose only head coaching experience came in the 2006 bowl game after Tom O'Brien left for NC State (Coach Spaz was passed over for Jagodzinski the last time). It's tough for even the optimistic BC supporters to wonder what direction the program is headed with all of the elderly coaches on staff. Expect a five-win season to be the absolute BEST this team can come up with.
CLEMSON
The Tigers will find out before the leaves turn colors whether keeping Dabo Swinney on as permanent coach after a successful interim run last year was the right move or not. The Tigers responded well to the enthusiastic young coach after he took over for Tommy Bowden midway through the year and steered them to four wins in six games to end the season. The injury-plagued and untested offensive line were a major thorn for the Tigers and it cost Bowden his job. Now the O-line is a strength, while the quarterback situation is unsettled with Cullen Harper departed. Redshirt freshman Kyle Parker has a strong arm, and right after starring in the Orange and White game this spring, he belted homers in both ends of a doubleheader against Miami. He is an obvious talent and might get a chance.
Talent is abound at almost every position; seniors C.J. Spiller and Jacoby Ford give Clemson two legitimate threats to score every time they touch the ball (at tailback and wideout, respectively). Eight starters return from a defense that gave up just 17 points and less than 300 yards per game last fall. New well-regarded, veteran coach Kevin Steele takes over the defense, bringing his aggressive approach to town. His personnel should react well to the change. A lack of a veteran winner like Harper at quarterback might make Swinney's first full season a bit tougher than he's hoping for.
Ask the bookie? - If Parker or Willy Korn can succesfully run the potent offense, the Tigers could be surprisingly successful. But land mines are abound everywhere in the ACC, and the jury is still out on whether Swinney was the right call to navigate the Clemson program. Expect wildly inconsistent performances from this team - just like you got under Tommy Bowden.
FLORIDA STATE
The Seminoles have found a way to make more news off the field this offseason once again, as academic scandal could force Bobby Bowden to vacate 14 wins from 2006 and 2007, which would give Joe Paterno an insurmountable lead in the battle to secure the record for most career college football victories. Most preseason prognosticators seem to say that 'this will be the year' for Florida State to finally turn the corner in the ACC and to get back on the national map. Problem is, that's been said several times in the last few years, only to see one thing or another derail FSU's chances early in the season.
Offensive coordinator and future FSU head coach Jimbo Fisher has gradually built the Seminole offense by reviving the dismal rushing attack, getting them up to 179 yards per game last year, the best output since 2000. Two stud sophomores (Ty Jones and Jermaine Thomas) appear ready to take over for departed Antone Smith in the backfield, and junior Christian Ponder (already has a degree) is back under center. His mobility was a big reason why the rushing went up precipitously last fall, and if his decision-making and accuracy improve this fall, he will be tough. The receivers lose some experience, but young athletes await their chance, and the O-line is one of the best in America. Longtime defensive coordinator Mickey Andrews had his unit lead the country in a couple of notable statistics last fall - opponents' third-down conversions (just 26 percent) and tackles for loss (112). That helped the Noles hold opponents to 20 points and 295 yards per game.
From the bookie? - There is really only one breather - five days after the Noles open with Miami at home, they host Jacksonville State. After that, they leave town to play BYU before hosting South Florida. The Noles, which played laughably easy schedules at times in the last 20 years, draw 11 teams with winning records and a 12th (NC State) that went to a bowl, so they probably have the toughest schedule in America. FSU gets Miami, North Carolina and Georgia Tech from the Coastal Division. National title hopes are unrealistic, but if Ponder continues to improve, the Seminoles could easily be playing in Jacksonville in December.
MARYLAND
The Terrapins enter the ninth season of the Ralph Friedgen era with some definite positives heading into the future. A head-coach-in-waiting (offensive coordinator James Franklin) means that Friedgen will likely only be around a couple or three more seasons. Franklin returned to town last fall in hopes of reviving a Maryland offense that scored 32 ppg from 2001-2003 before staggering to just 22 from 2004-2007. Franklin, the WR coach from 2000-2004, took over the offense last year, but it struggled at times.
The defense gets new coordinator Don Brown (ex-head coach at I-AA UMass), but it loses several key contributors across the board. The Terps figure to struggle up front (on both sides of the ball), as there isn't much depth and it's an obvious rebuilding project. Big playmakers haven't been abundant for Friedgen's team in years, as the Terrapins have forced only 79 turnovers in the last four years.
Ask the bookie? - Maryland is one of the bookie's favorite teams (especially for the customers who prefer betting on favorites).
The Turtles are just hard to figure out. As a favorite, they have covered just four times in their last 18 in that role. That being said, the Terrapins upset FOUR teams in the top-25 last fall, so it's certainly obvious that they are capable. The offense scored 21 or fewer points a mind-boggling EIGHT times in 2008. That's going to be tough to overcome with the losses on the O-line. That, and two loseable non-con games, will make bowl eligibility a challenge.
NORTH CAROLINA STATE
NC State should continue to make progress in the third season under Tom O'Brien. Several outside observers scratched their head when O'Brien left Chestnut Hill to take over in Raleigh. After all, he had navigated BC to eight straight winning seasons and countless bowl wins before leaving for an ACC division rival. The emergence of quarterback Russell Wilson might help explain it. O'Brien coached Matt Ryan at BC, but it's obvious that from watching Wilson play, not even Ryan has that kind of unlimited potential. Wilson was a redshirt freshman last fall, earning the starting job and then throwing 17 touchdowns with just ONE interception. He will enter the South Carolina game on Sept. 3 with a 249-pass streak without having thrown a pick.
In each of the last two seasons, the Wolfpack have started slowly before rebounding to win four straight late in the season. The run last fall included two on the road, including a 41-10 shellacking of North Carolina as a double-digit dog in Chapel Hill. The Pack were a dog in all four of those wins, earning a bowl bid and eventually losing to Rutgers after Wilson went down with an injury. The resurgance late can also be attributed to the youthful defense, which suffered a spate of injuries in September before getting healthy and jelling later in the season. NC State looks strong everywhere on defense except perhaps at safety, where true freshman Donald Coleman might be starting from Day 1.
Ask the bookie? - NC State covered its last eight of 2008, and are now 15-4 in their last 19 ATS... With O'Brien now in his third season, and with four non-conference games to open up, it's entirely possible that the Wolfpack could win 10 games and emerge out of the logjammed Atlantic Division and earn a trip to Jacksonville. But the ACC is the toughest conference to handicap - if the 'Pack only win six games, The Bookie would not be shocked.
WAKE FOREST
Jim Grobe has done one of the best jobs in all of college football, and you probably wouldn't get a big argument from national observers if you were to tab him as the 'Coach of the Decade' for his job since taking over in Winston-Salem in 2001. Three straight winning seasons in succession is what the Deacons are building on - not bad for a program that had five or six in the 50 years prior. Recruiting would seem to be much easier now, when you compare the Wake pipeline to the NFL compared to ACC rivals Virginia Tech, Miami and Florida State. The Deacons had FOUR studs from their defense alone drafted in the first four rounds - the aforementioned teams had one player taken COMBINED in the first four rounds.
That stat is a troublesome for the 2009 Wake Forest team, though. Wake might not be able to 'reload' the way a Florida State or a Miami did in the 1990s. Those four who left for the NFL were spearheading units the last three years that forced a dizzying 102 turnovers (37 last fall), tops in America in that stretch. The D-Line should be stout, but the back-7 are unquestionably rebuilding, and that might keep Wake from repeating its BCS success from three seasons ago. The Deacons scored a combined 51 points in a five-game stretch in the middle of the season that exposed a more air-oriented 'spread' was not the way to go. Nevertheless, QB Riley Skinner was the starter as a freshmen when the Deacons won 11 games, and he's the man now as a senior. The offense figures to improve after 2008's aforementioned struggles. Seven O-linemen have starting experience, and a couple of skill players should emerge for Grobe (it always seems to happen).
Ask the bookie? - Wake Forest has established itself as one of the best programs in the league, and with just two losses by more than 7 points in its last 25 games, the Deacons figure to be competitive against anyone. With Grobe and Skinner leading the way, that might be enough to lift the Demon Deacons to another double-digit win total.
DUKE
The Blue Devils won four games last fall, which matched their win output from 2004-2007's four seasons combined. The optimistic outlook says that Duke was 4-4 and could have been 6-2 with a couple of breaks. But realistically, first-year savvy coach David Cutcliffe did about as well as could be expected considering his program's lack of depth across the board. A bowl bid this season is not unrealistic, but also not probable. Still, there is hope in the program, a legitimate sense of a positive future in the ACC for the first time since Steve Spurrier roamed the Durham sidelines in the 1980s.
Depth won't be a problem at quarterback, where senior four-year starter Thaddeus Lewis will be the starter, and highly-touted redshirt freshman Sean Renfree is set to see some time as well. The situation at O-line and other skill positions on offense are similar: the Blue Devils lose quality while trying to add depth. It should be a work in progress. On defense, the line appears to be the strength, while the secondary is short on quality depth. Losing safety (and former QB) Zak Asack in the spring for getting kicked off the team will certainly hurt, but Cutcliffe is trying to build his program the right way.
Ask the bookie? - Duke plays two teams from Division I-AA, which means that it has to win seven games to be bowl-eligible this fall. That might be too tall of a task, even for Cutcliffe and Lewis, who both need to be respected. Duke plays no non-conference home games on the Vegas board, so their first game at home this fall that means anything to bettors is Oct.3 against Virginia Tech.
GEORGIA TECH
The Yellow Jackets might be poised to take another step forward in the second year under shrewd coach Bobby Johnson, who left Navy to take over last fall. The Jackets were fourth in America in rushing, with 273 yards per game (100 more than anyone else in the ACC) in Johnson's 'flexbone option' offense. Detractors will say that Johnson's success in the ACC the first time around might have been a big flukish, as opponents simply weren't ready for it. However, with one week to prepare for it, most teams simply don't have the manpower or the brains to defend the complex offense, where timing and spacing and gap-assignment mean everything. Also, Johnson gets another year to bring in his own players and implement the entire playbook (sources say he was working at a little over 50 percent last year while teaching the intricacies of his system). Advantage, Tech.
Almost everyone returns to the offense. The Jackets are three-deep at QB and the O-line is becoming more comfortable with the semi-shady 'cut blocking' schemes that Johnson employs. Concerns are with the special teams, which were downright ghastly at times last fall, and the D-line, where three All-ACC players depart. Those are somewhat alleviated by the very strong secondary, which has so much depth that the coaching staff created a new hybrid position where the safety will also act as a linebacker.
Ask the bookie? - The Yellow Jackets should be a fun team to book again this fall; much less pleasant to bet. There are only six seniors on scholarship. Young kids are hard to read. Johnson's record ATS since his Navy days now stands at a book-breaking 47-26 since the middle of 2002. Adjustments by the oddsmakers will make the Jackets the favorite as many as 10 times in 11 'board' games this fall. The lack of Johnson ever exposing a legitimate passing game and his second season in the ACC, with foes seeing the same offense and being more familiar with it, make it probable that the Jackets likely won't get to those 10 wins in the regular season.
MIAMI (FLORIDA)
The Hurricanes will once again trot out a very youthful team in 2009. That could prove to be the ultimate demise for third-year coach Randy Shannon, who is 12-13. Shannon, a Miami product, has recruited well, but his success on the sideline as the head coach has not followed yet, and many in south Florida are getting restless. The Canes will also have new coordinators on BOTH sides of the ball, which could further hinder their progress. Without question, Miami faces the toughest four-game stretch to start the season (at Florida State, vs. Georgia Tech, at Virginia Tech, vs. Oklahoma) in America, which won't help. The new defensive coordinator will have to figure out how to get the DB's back to Miami standards; they only had FOUR interceptions all of last season.
On the positive side, Miami won five straight to get to 7-3 last season. Shannon fired Patrick Nix from his OC spot to bring in well-regarded, aggressive Mark Whipple from the NFL ranks. Whipple's job is to continue developing sophomore QB Jacory Harris, who has worlds of potential. Whipple's patience might be tested, because the RB's and O-Line figure to be Miami's strength on offense.
Ask the bookie? - Miami will struggle to get to .500 if its confidence is shaken and battered from that meat-grinder September. Here's hoping Shannon gets a chance to turn things around, as he's recruited hard and scheduled fearlessly. The Canes might not even be favored until an Oct. 17 trip to Central Florida, and that's no guarantee.
NORTH CAROLINA
UNC head coach Butch Davis enters his third season with heightened expectations fueled by his team's steady improvements from Day 1 of his regime. Davis took over at Miami (Florida) in 1995 and laid the foundation for a national title (the year after he left for the Browns) in 2001 and almost another one in 2002. The foundation is being laid again in Chapel Hill, where Davis has rapidly built a speedy, bruising defense. Almost the entire two-deep returns and Davis's top-flight first recruits are now in their third year on campus.
The defense picked off 20 passes last year, and only surrendered more than 24 points one time in the regular season. The offensive outlook is a bit more murky, as QB T.J. Yates is trying to return from multiple injuries. He's the starter entering camp, but his numbers (25 TD's and 22 INT's in two seasons) aren't overly special. An amazing FOUR Tar Heel receivers were drafted as well, so it remains to be seen how good Yates will be with an expected drop in production from that group. And while the Heels have depth in the backfield, the O-line loses a pair of three-year starters, which will certainly hurt.
Ask the bookie? - Carolina has covered 12 of its past 15 when catching points, and (depending on the line you got in the Duke game last year) the 'dog' was 9-3 in Tar Heel games last year and 7-2-2 (or so, again, depending on where you shopped) in 2007. As long as Davis continues to be friendly to the 'dogs', especially in ACC games, The Bookie will think favorably on his overall body of work, regardless of whether he builds the UNC program to national-championship caliber or not.
VIRGINIA
The Cavaliers have had two losing seasons in the last three, and it's more-than-obvious that coach Al Groh will occupy one of the hottest seats in the nation entering his ninth season. There will also be a Groh as a UVA coordinator. That's because even though Al Groh replaced his son as the offensive coordinator, he will take over the defensive coordinator duties. Mike Groh's offense had become stagnant and woeful, as the Hoos ranked below No. 100 in total offense the last three seasons, scoring 18 or fewer points in a whopping 21 of those 37 games. Highly-regarded Gregg Brandon, formerly head coach succeeding Urban Meyer at Bowling Green, steps in to run his spread offense, and Groh wisely has given him 'carte blanch' to figure out what it will take to turn things around, and fast.
Brandon is starting from scratch, trying to figure out where to put his players to have a chance to succeed. Last year's top five receivers are gone. Thankfully, four starters on the O-line return, and the Cavaliers only play three games in September, and should be competitive in all of them. On defense, Groh will go back to the 3-4 he's used at every stop while running his defense. The D-line should be deep, but the Cavs lose a talented trio of three-year starters at linebacker.
Ask the bookie? - Unless Brandon can figure out a way to rapidly develop the pedestrian offense, it looks like another long season in Charlottesville, and the end of the line for Groh. It looks like Virginia has the easiest schedule in the ACC (conference games), which might help.
VIRGINIA TECH
The Hokies have is firmly perched themselves atop the ACC. Since entering the league in 2004, no team has had more success than Frank Beamer's Hokies. They have won 10 games every year, and three league titles, including the last two. There are plenty of pieces in place to ensure another run at an ACC title this year. Junior Tyrod Taylor is the quarterback, and his continued development is going to be a major factor in whether the Hokies are a BCS-player or a mid-pack Coastal division team.
Despite all of the success that Beamer's guys have enjoyed lately, the offense is semi-stagnant at times. Last year, VT threw only SIX touchdown passes, three of which came from Taylor, who alternated with now-graduated Sean Glennon. The Hokies are literally four-deep at tailback and have a couple of receiving weapons. The Hokie defense has been nothing short of consistently spectacular, having not allowed 17 points per game OR 300 yards per game average in ANY of the last five seasons. They are plus-51 in turnovers in that same time frame, giving creedance to the phrase "Beamer-Ball". VT returns seven starters from a team that yielded just 13 ppg in the last six games. The four who are gone were all major contributors, but the Hokies have always been able to plug people in and not see much of a drop-off.
From the bookie? - Tech plays Alabama in Atlanta to open the season. A win there and people start talking BCS national-title aspirations. The road schedule (Duke, Georgia Tech, East Carolina, Maryland and Virginia) appears tenable, with GT likely being the only team to be favored in those five games. Is Taylor the guy who can lead the Hokies to the promised land, and will those four starters on defense lost be too much to overcome?
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