COLORADO
Dan Hawkins guaranteed at the recent Big 12 media days that he never guaranteed 10 wins for the 2009 season back in December. Whether it's true or not, it's hard not to like Hawkins's ever-present enthusiasm. Considering the Buffaloes lost more than 20 percent of their roster to injuries or surgery in 2008, he has a point of trying to be optimistic. However, offseason developments, among other things ON the field, will make that a tough feat. First, he lost offensive coordinator Mark Helfrich to Oregon AFTER spring practice. Stud wideout Josh Smith decided to transfer, stud guard Max Tuioti-Mariner tore a second ACL this offseason (in his other knee) and the Buffalo recruiting class wasn't as good as what Hawkins had hoped. But lots of returnees dot the roster this fall.
On offense, two QB's (one, Cody Hawkins, is coach Hawkins's son) will have a chance and stud RB Darrell Scott (some considered 2008's No. 1 recruit nationally) was hurt last year and should be healthy now. The rushing attack is powerful but the passing game inhibited Colorado's progress, as CU ranked just 95th in total yards and 100th in scoring - stats that won't win games in the offensive-minded Big 12. On defense, just four full-timers return and defensive coordinator Ron Collins will likely switch to a 3-4 (he experimented at times with it in 2008) primarily because of the youngsters along the DL and the depth at linebacker (the Buffs have perhaps the top linebackers in the league) make the change an obvious one.
Ask the bookie - The Buffs duck Oklahoma out of the south but draw Oklahoma State and Texas on the road. The trip to revenge-minded West Virginia won't be a fun one, but in the fairly-weak Big 12 North, none of the other nine games is unwinnable. Look for seven or eight CU wins a most, and probably a trip to a minor bowl as Hawkins continues to try to take CU to the top of the Big 12 North.
IOWA STATE
The Cyclones have lost 10 straight heading into 2009, giving them the indubious distinction of having the nation's longest losing streak heading into the season. Former head coach Gene Chizik, one of the nation's top assistant's before taking the ISU job, bolted for Auburn following the end of the season. Luckily, the Cyclones 'stumbled' into Paul Rhoads, from nearby Ankeny, via defensive coordinator at Pitt for eight seasons and Auburn (coincidence, eh?) for one. Rhoads is an ISU grad and reportedly wowed the higher-ups at his interview. The new coach also hired coordinators who should be able to make the 'Clones immediately competitive. Tom Herman (a MENSA member) ran the Rice offense that turned Chase Clement into a stud. Wally Burnham, who ran the stout and strong defense at South Florida for years, leaves Tampa to come to Ames. Last season, the Bulls were 10th in the nation in defense.
The Cyclones are devoid of speed. That is the one thing they are lacking to compete consistently in this league. Junior QB Austin Arnaud has started the last two seasons and seems to like the intricacies of the new spread offense. The O-line returns four starters, and there are two capable tight ends, giving Rhoads the ability to have Herman implement more double-TE sets (as he would prefer to do). The defense has six starters back, but finished 95th against the run, 116th (fourth-from-worst) against the pass, 112th in total yards allowed and 109th (almost 36 ppg) in scoring defense in 2008. The Cyclones are going to a zone-blitz system that offsets their speed deficiencies. ISU allowed 34 points or more in nine of its last 10 games.
Ask the bookie? - With the negative stuff in place (bad record, long losing streak, new coach), there is still a lot of upside in Ames. ISU covered seven of the 11 lined games, and had a chance to win as many as six games with some luck last fall. The Cyclones can certainly win four or five games this year without large changes; the new staff will have a great deal of say in it all.
KANSAS
Kansas is entering the 2009 season on another high. Eighth-year head coach Mark Mangino has piloted the school to back-to-back bowl victories for the first time in school history. He has seven starters back on both sides of the ball, and is in an advantageous situation, considering he returns his quarterback, while three Big 12 North contenders break in a new guy under center. The O-Line is young, but Mangino is a former OL coach, so expect development there.
The Jayhawk defense ranked 114th against the pass, but games against South Florida on the road, as well as Texas Tech, K-State (with an NFL-caliber QB), Texas and Mizzou won't help that rating. Still, Mangino is looking for improvements. All three starters at LB are gone, as well. The Jayhawks will probably rely on their 4-2-5 nickel packages more (they go to that often against a lot of the spread offenses in the league), especially with the LB losses. On the positive side, the skill players all return for the Jayhawks on offense. QB Todd Reesing should be one of the best in the league, and Jake Sharp and Kerry Meier will be names you hear often when KU has the ball, as well.
Ask the bookie? - When Mangino started at KU, he was on the favorable end of the Big XII schedule. Three of the teams he keeps getting are standouts; the other three are usually cellar-dwellers. Despite the Jayhawks having the best team in the B-XII North in 2009, it's tough to give them the division. That's because they face Oklahoma, Texas Tech and Texas again. That resulted in an 0-3 finish last year, in games KU was outscored by a total of 153-59. Look for eight, or possibly nine wins - with Oklahoma at home being the one game to circle for possible upset possibilities.
KANSAS STATE
After a disastrous three-year tenure of Ron Price, longtime KSU coach Bill Snyder returns to coach at a stadium that bears his name. Can he rebuild the program he sent to astronomical (considering the history of Wildcat football) heights in the 1990s and earlier this decade? He won 136 games in 17 seasons, including four Big XII North titles. Rebuilding this mess might not be easy - former coaches like John Robinson and Bill Walsh had trouble duplicating initial successes at USC and Stanford, for example. Don't forget that Snyder went 9-13 in his last two seasons before retiring, as well.
Three assistants left before he had even settled into his office. The running backs are untested. The defense was third-to-worst in America, giving up 38 ppg against I-A foes and 500-plus ypg. Losing QB Josh Freeman to the NFL was the last of the bad news. The receiving corps is deep and solid, and there are three returning starters up front. Eight starters return from the youngish defense. Looking at some numbers from 2008, that might not be considered a 'good' thing.
Ask the bookie? - Snyder established a formula that worked for years - he scheduled soft out of the league, and counted on those games to get experience for everyone to be ready to play in the league. Gone from future schedules are Miami (Florida), Virginia Tech and Oregon. And this year, the Wildcats have already softened things up, playing UMass, Louisiana-Lafayette, UCLA and Tennessee Tech outside of the league. That means they'll need to win seven games to get bowl eligible... Don't worry, it won't happen. Even with the three winnable non-Big 12 games, it looks like 5-7 is the absolute best Snyder can do with this group this year.
MISSOURI
OK, brace yourself for the bad news about the Tigers, who have won 22 games the last two seasons. Both coordinators are gone. Standout QB Chase Daniel is gone. Stud receiver Jeremy Maclin is gone. TE Chase Coffman is gone. The players are all in the NFL. Stud kicker Jeff Wolfert and seven defensive starters are gone. Blaine Gabbert takes over the reigns at QB; he has a big arm, which should help head coach Gary Pinkel and his no-huddle spread offense continue to thrive. Daniel was in town for most of the summer offering advice, which should help come fall.
The defense is where there is a greater concern. The Tigers allowed 40 or more points four times. Despite losing seven starters, Pinkel is not down on that unit because of the influx of more speed in 2009. The pass defense (while playing in the Big XII, to be fair) was third-to-worst in America last fall. It's got to get better if the Tigers are to ever hope to challenge Oklahoma or (insert Big XII South champ here) in the league title game.
Ask the bookie? - After the tough opener against Illinois, the Tigers play three teams they should beat - though the trip to Reno to face Nevada at the end of September will not be easy. Pinkel is a good enough coach to keep his team competitive and if the youngsters can grow up during the non-conference portion of play, this could be another nine-win season.
NEBRASKA
It looks like 'Corn' got it right this time. After the ill-fated Bill Callahan Era ended after the 2007 season, the Husker Nation decided to bring in ex-assistant Bo Pelini. He stunningly took away the 'Blackshirts' from the defense before the '08 season started, saying they had to earn them. He also apologized to everyone in Nebraska and anyone associated with the program after a 52-17 home loss to Mizzou, the worst home defeat since the 1950s! Still, the Cornhuskers showed vast improvement under Pelini and that loss was the low point. After a narrow OT loss at Texas Tech, the Huskers won six of seven to finish 9-4 and beat Clemson to win the Gator Bowl in rallying fashion.
On the negative side, the Huskers lose their QB, a top RB, their best WRs and the right side of his O-line. The offense will almost assuredly experience growing pains. The defense will be powerful up front, have young talent at LB and experienced youth at DB - a group that faced the best the league had to offer and is back for more in 2009.
Ask the bookie? - Three of the first four foes are from the Sun Belt, and all come to Lincoln. The lone road non-con game is at Virginia Tech. That almost assures the Huskers of a 3-1 start and four more wins should be easy to come by. Expect Pelini to go bowling again and another winning season as he tries to (re)build a program in Lincoln.
SOUTH
BAYLOR
Two factors contibute to Baylor no longer being mentioned at the butt-end of jokes involving the Big XII. Head coach Art Briles, and stud quarterback Robert Griffin. Briles left his alma-mater Houston to take the Baylor job prior to the 2008 season, and stud recruit Griffin followed him. Briles proclaims Griffin to be much better and prepared heading into this fall. That will undoubtedly be scary news for BU foes. Griffin was VERY GOOD last fall, throwing for 15 TDs and only three interceptions while also running for 843 yards. Nine starters return on offense (though LT Jason Smith, the second overall pick, is one of the departed).
The bad news? Baylor plays eight teams that went to bowls last season. The defense was porous last fall, though eight starters return. Baylor was fourth in the nation in turnover margin at plus-16 a season after being minus-17; yet the Bears were still only 4-8. The Bears did go 8-3 ATS, something to watch going forward.
Ask the bookie? - It's sure hard NOT to root for Briles in his second season at Baylor, where the Bears are in line to face four of the top nine scoring offenses in the country - just in their OWN division. Six wins would get the Bears to bowl eligibility, and with this schedule, it would be a crime if they didn't go at 6-6 over a 7-5 MAC or C-USA team.
OKLAHOMA
Bob Stoops has never had his coaching called into question - not until after last season, at least. Stoops has done everything at OU besides win 'the big one' in the 2000s. Since the national title win over Florida State, Stoops has lost five BCS games in the last six years. The good news is that OU has BEEN to five BCS games in the last six years. Heisman Trophy-winning QB Sam Bradford is back to ensure another BCS appearance. Nine starters return on defense, and the Sooners DID cover 10 times last fall.
There are four key areas of concern if the Sooners are to reach another January bowl game: Four new starters on the O-line; A pass defense that ranked 99th in the nation last year (despite a rush that had 42 sacks, to rank fourth in the country); a special teams group that was inconsistent at best; and a young, inexperienced group of wideouts. Because of the defensive issues, suddenly defensive coordinator Brent Venables finds himself on the hot seat. That side of the ball again has the most questions heading into this fall.
Ask the bookie? - Oklahoma faces some dynamic offenses. Trips to Nebraska are never easy, but that is the sandwich game with Kansas State and Texas A&M visiting in between. Tough games are on both sides of that part of the schedule, but if the Sooners can navigate the first seven games, the last couple will be doozies - though eight through 10 should all be 'W's'...
OKLAHOMA STATE
First, the bad news for fifth-year coach Mike Gundy's team in Stillwater. The Cowboys ranked 109th against the pass, 93rd in total defense and 107th in sacks (only 13) - and both starting tackles are gone as well as three D-Backs. The good news is that incoming D-coordinator Bill Young is an OSU grad and widely lauded as one of the best in the business. All of his linebackers return. The offense should be nothing short of outstanding, as there are no defenses anywhere that have answers for Zac Robinson and his gang, which will only be questionable at receiver depth.
The OSU defense has to get better. In Gundy's first four years, the Cowboys have never finished higher than 74th in total defense. The Cowboys are stronger at D-End than they've been in awhile heading into fall camp. That figures to help their production, especially on running plays headed toward the 6-to-9 holes.
Ask the bookie? - Look at this schedule. Four non-con home games to start with. The Cowboys are in many top-10s in the preseason, so a win over Georgia would just bolster a rating that will be strong enough to be in BCS consideration so long as OSU keeps winning. Three winnable games against the North are on the schedule. If The Bookie is right about this team, then Bedlam in Norman to end the season could be a very very big game for league and national title implications.
TEXAS
Mack Brown has cemented his legacy, even after the Longhorns couldn't win it all last year. UT has now won 10 games in an amazing EIGHT straight seasons. Stud QB Colt McCoy decided to return for his senior season, a major key in UT's Big 12 and national aspirations. There are linemen everywhere, and enough good receivers back to cause problems for opposing defenses. There is still no big TE receiving threat to distract DB's from loading up on Longhorn receivers on the outside, and no true running back has emerged to take some of the pressure off McCoy (the leading rusher by over 200 yards last season).
The Longhorns also lost three of their front four on defense. But they lost them to the NFL, and this is Texas, where Brown reloads, he doesn't rebuild. Defensive coordinator Will Muschamp has moved stud OLB Sergio Kindle to defensive end and is tweaking a 4-2-5 formation. Texas has a glut of DB's, and no team saw fewer rushing attempts against it than Texas last fall. The Longhorns only had 16 takeaways (six interceptions, which was third-fewest in America).
Ask the bookie? - The Bookie has a lot of friends who, unfortunately, are Texas fans. You can't find one of them that thinks this team doesn't have a chance to win the national title. Considering the way the Longhorns got snubbed last fall, they might well be a team on a mission. A three-week run in October with trips to Dallas to face Oklahoma, Missouri and Oklahoma State will probably determine Texas's fate. Last season, it was a four-week run of brutality that included those three (all Texas wins) followed by a trip to unbeaten Texas Tech - a game that the Horns lost with one second left.
TEXAS A&M
It is a full-fledged rebuild mode for second-year coach Mike Sherman in College Station. He's estimated that as many as two-thirds of the 2009 newcomers will get the chance to play right away. Many reasons account for this - last fall, the Aggies were shocked 18-14 by Sun Belt middle-of-the-road Arkansas State. They gave up 51 ppg in the five South contests, losing all of them. The defense had just 16 sacks and eight interceptions, and finished 114th in rush defense, total defense and scoring defense, as well as 114th in rushing offense. Defensive coordinator Joe Kines has come out of spring and appears content to run a revised 4-3, where OLB Von Miller will move to a speed-rush defensive end. Regardless of who ends up where, Sherman obviously must put the brunt of his focus on this porous group.
On offense, nine starters return and this will be the second year of Sherman's multiple-sets, West Coast-type offense, meaning the returnees should have a better grasp on things. Four O-linemen return, but they gave up 39 sacks last year, ranking fifth-to-worst in the nation. The improvement up front is vital for the playmakers that are maturing at WR and RB to show their stuff. QB Jerrod Johnson is more than capable as well.
Ask the bookie? - The schedule-maker certainly did A&M a favor, as their three easiest league games all figure to come against the three North teams (K-State, Iowa State and Colorado). But 2-2 out of the league looks to be the best the Aggies will do, and getting to six wins might be too much to ask of Sherman as he continues to try to rebuild in the brutal Big 12 South.
TEXAS TECH
The Red Raiders were close winners in most games, but they were winners; the one exception being the 65-21 freight-train that hit them in Norman, Oklahoma to send the Sooners catapaulting over Tech and Texas to the Big 12 (and national) title game. An 11-1 regular season earned Mike Leach a contract extension. There are really no walkovers in I-A this season, as Leach scheduled Rice, Houston and New Mexico out of the conference in addition to the obligatory I-AA game to open up. With a trip to revenge-minded Texas on Sept. 19, the Red Raiders will find out early just how they can compete in the Big 12.
Of great concern is breaking in a new quarterback - Tech is the only one of six teams in the division that lost its starting QB, and it was a good one, as Graham Harrell was a three-year starter, one of the few Leach has ever had. In steps Taylor Potts, who was capable in relief last fall. Potts also loses three O-linemen, but there is young talent there and at receiver, where someone's got to step up and replace all-everything Michael Crabtree. Defensive coordinator Ruffin McNeil has done well since taking over in the middle of 2007, but he'll have to turn a new group of defenders into playmakers, as two safeties and two DE's depart. But all of the veteran linebackers are back and the two corners are seniors. TT would do well to duplicate the 29 takeaways the defense manufactured in 2008.
Ask the bookie? - Let's see what Leach can do for an encore. This team plays only four true road games, but unlike in past years (like last year, when you could pencil in eight or nine wins) there are only five or so 'sure' wins heading into the fall. The development of Potts and the new players on the OL and on defense will be instrumental in tacking on that total and being competitive in the brutal South.
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