CINCINNATI
It's hard to fault anything that Brian Kelly has done in his two seasons at Cincinnati. After guiding Central Michigan to a 9-4 record and a MAC title in 2006 (11-2 ATS), Kelly is 21-6 as the Bearcats' coach, and was a surprise Big East champion last season. With the bowl loss, Cincinnati heads into the season on a 3-game ATS losing streak, a first for Kelly as he prepares for his sixth season as a head coach. It could be an interesting season for those who monitor UC. There are eight starters back on offense, but the defense basically loses everyone, as just one starter returns.
Cincy's offense was semi-pedestrian at times last year, but returning QB Tony Pike seems satisfied that Kelly trusts him to run the show. Stud receiver Mardy Gilyard will be a key player again, and if the NCAA grants Vidal Hazelton (CHECK STATUS of Vidal Hazelton) then Cincy has two potent threats on the outside. But the offensive line will be largely untested outside of left tackle Jeff Linkenbach. On the other side, new defensive coordinator Bob Diaco is switching to a 3-4. He'll have to replace playmakers everywhere. Punter Kevin Huber led the nation with a 45-yard net average. He is gone, and his loss will certainly be felt.
Ask the bookie? - An early conference test at Rutgers awaits, and it could go a long way to see who will be near the top, competing with South Florida and West Virginia, in the Big East. Trips to Oregon State and Miami (Ohio) and home games against Fresno State and Illinois make for an intriguing non-conference schedule (games against five different teams, four in Division I-A, all in different conferences). A solid power rating for Cincinnati will be imperative when trying to figure out the right side of those games, in addition to a solid conference rating for both the Big East and the corresponding opposing league.
CONNECTICUT
Randy Edsall continues to evolve as a head coach. He's finally got his Huskie program where the initial goal was - to play in and win bowl games. His career record in 10 years is on the cusp of .500 and he's piloted the Huskies to two straight bowls, including a covering win over Buffalo last season. Now, after leading the nation's leading rusher to the NFL, he's hired a new offensive coordinator. Joe Moorhead comes from Akron to install a spread offense, which is not normal for a team that also doesn't have an experienced quarterback. There is a ton of talent at receiver, which will help whoever wins the QB job in the transition. Special teams look to be a strength for the Huskies, as well.
UConn has a trio of junior linebackers back to anchor the defense. The secondary is okay at the top, but there is no proven depth. That could prove troublesome if the Huskies have any injury issues, as three freshmen and a sophomore are the backups. There is some versatility in the front seven, which will help DC Todd Orlando.
Ask the bookie? - UConn's schedule includes probably three winnable non-Big East games, so a 3-4 league record could get Edsall's gang back to a bowl. "The Bookie" constantly has underrated UConn in the past. Without stud RB Donald Brown this year, it will be easy to dismiss their chances again this fall, but 7 wins is certainly possible if Edsall can coax maximum ability out of his team.
LOUISVILLE
Athletic director Tom Jurich has done little wrong since taking his job at the turn of the century. He's navigated Louisville's move up the ladder from the Metro Conference to the Great Midwest (? Conference), to Conference USA to the Big East. He has hired 'name' coaches like Rick Pitino, and others who have taken their respective teams to the BCS (Bobby Petrino), College World Series (Dan McConnell) and women's basketball championship game (Tom Cullen). The BCS appearance was in January of 2007, the Omaha appearance was the same year, and the women lost to unbeaten UConn just this spring. It certainly seems a world away for Louisville fans, which appear ready to pull the plug on what looks like Jurich's first failure. He hired Steve Kragthorpe from Tulsa, and the Cards went from a potential national championship contender under Petrino to two straight non-bowl seasons.
To be fair, Kragthorpe inherited a mess of a situation that saw about 20 players leave the program for one reason or another during his first season. Of course, that lack of depth and quality depth catches up to you quickly. It leaves a lasting stain, too. Now the Cards are looking at a season with an unproven QB, but lots of weapons in skill positions around him. Kragthorpe is calling the plays on offense himself, and he's got six new assistant coaches in for the fall. The defensive line looks like a disaster on paper, as there is little to no depth. Despite that, new defensive coordinator Brent Guy wants to play an attack-oriented style that got the Cards burnt for 34 and 33 ppg in Big East play the last two years.
Ask the bookie? - It didn't take long for the mighty to fall. The Cards have three winnable non-Big East games all at home, but getting to six wins won't be easy with the holes in the defense.
PITTSBURGH
Dave Wannstedt is slightly above .500 at Pitt and he sticks around for 2009 after a 9-4 effort last fall. The Panthers have some pieces in place to progress, although winning more than 9 games this year could prove difficult after the loss of all-world backs LeSean McCoy and LaRod Stephens-Howling. Not to worry, as true frosh Dion Lewis enrolled early and has drawn comparisons to West Virginia's Noel Devine. The O-line is experienced and solid, but not deep. Wanny hired Frank Cignetti from Cal as his new offensive coordinator. His defensive coordinator is ex-SMU coach Phil Bennett.
The Panthers have to first address which returning quarterback will mature into an adequate Big East starter. Bill Stull and Pat Bostick both threw more INT's than touchdowns last year. Redshirt freshman Tino Sunseri could eventually emerge by default. On the other side of the ball, the linebackers appear to be the question (check status of Adam Gunn, who was suspended indefinitely). If Gunn returns, the defense will be very good at worst, and potentially outstanding. The D-line is going to be one of the best in America, and the secondary returns three starters. The schedule isn't difficult at all, with a trip to North Carolina State and a home game against Notre Dame as the two toughest out-of-conference tests.
Ask the bookie? - If the Panthers get Gunn back and stay healthy on defense, then Cignetti and Wannstedt's job becomes easy: don't let the offense beat you, because the defense will keep you in almost every game. Take a long look at some early UNDERS if the linesmakers are slow to adjust for the lack of having the two stud running backs. Of course, the Panthers lost their bowl game 3-0 last year, so bettors have to hope vookmakers consider that a throwout.
RUTGERS
The Scarlet Knights will likely be the most different-looking team from year's past than anyone else in the league. Gone is QB Mike Teel, a four-year starter who threw for almost 10,000 yards and 59 touchdowns. Also gone are stud receivers Tiquan Underwood and Kenny Britt. Head coach Greg Schiano realized the offense was in a transition period, and decided to promote two assistants to be co-offensive coordinators. He also stepped back from calling the defense and promoted two more assistants from in-house. The receiving and QB situations are certainly concerning for Schiano, and five starters are gone from a defense that ranked 19th in the country (19 ppg).
Rutgers does return all five starters on its O-line, and that should be a big strength. And of the six starters who return, there are two up front, two linebackers and two in the secondary. They should be able to adequate train the other five who step in and fill voids, in addition to other youngsters filling out the depth chart on defense. Rutgers won seven straight (including the bowl) after a 1-5 start, and covered the number in each of its last eight regular season games.
Ask the bookie - Keep an eye on Schiano. He's no longer working for athletic director Robert Mulcahy, who spearheaded stadium and other expansion for the program and Schiano's monster contract. New AD Tim Pernetti might waver on the committments, and if so, Schiano will have a long laundary list of potential suitors that could potentially wreck the Rutgers season, especially in November. The Scarlet Knights close with five Big East games after a pretty tame non-league schedule. This team could be involved in some volatile line moves.
SOUTH FLORIDA
Few teams will garner stronger opinions from those in the know (on both ends of the spectrum) than South Florida. The Bulls started last season 5-0 before the offense stalled out, then dropped four of five. Enigmatic QB Matt Grothe returns for what seems like his ninth season. Grothe has started every game since the second one of his freshman year, and has enormous upside when he's good. Unfortunately, he's been wildly inconsistent in the past, which is why several astute Big East folks can't back USF to win the league title. That's the next step in coach Jim Leavitt's progression. He's spent 12 years in games and a few years before to get the program to finally compete with Florida State (they will play in Tallahassee for the first time) and Miami (they host the Hurricanes for the first time in November).
Grothe has thrown for 8,157 yards and 47 touchdowns in his career, and has ran for 2,085 yards and 23 scores as well, leading the team in rushing the last couple of years. New offensive coordinator Mike Canales is switching the offense to more of a true 'spread' attack, with an emphasis on the deep-ball in the passing game. Grothe is rumored to hav likec the changes, but the verdict is still out on whether they'll be able to execute it. The defense ranked 10th in the nation last year, and returns six starters, including all-everything DE George Selvie. The Bulls only picked off nine passes last fall after coming up with 22 in 2007 - keep an eye on the defense, as it will likely have a lot to do with how many wins this team comes up with, assuming Grothe doesn't singlehandedly beat the Bulls with mistakes.
Ask the bookie - Lots of questions abound, but they are 'good' questions - not like the ones that people are asking at Louisville, for example. The schedule includes two I-AA teams and Western Kentucky, moving up to I-A this year, in the first three weeks, so we will still likely have questions until the Sept. 26 trip to Florida State. After that, things should start to sort themselves out.
SYRACUSE
One team with no questions heading into the fall is Syracuse. The Orange fired Greg Robinson after his woeful regime failed to produce much (any?) progress since his hire. Enter Doug Marrone, a Syracuse grad who has been the Saints' offensive coordinator the last three years. Greg Paulus leaves Mike Kryzewszki's basketball program at Duke to use a year of college football eligibility he's got remaining. Paulus threw for 11,700 yards in high school, so there's little doubt that he's the most talented of the 'Cuse QB's.
Both units ranked below 100 in the nation last year, and the defensive depth took a hit from players who left after Marrone took over. The offensive line, which was supposed to be decent, got outclassed by a woeful Syracuse defensive front in the spring. The only sure thing here is that this is a true rebuilding job for Marrone and his staff. The most interesting thing about Syracuse football this fall is to see what offensive coordinator Rob Spence (last four seasons at Clemson as OC there after leading Toledo's high-scoring MAC offenses earlier in the decade) has up his sleeve for Paulus.
Ask the bookie - You know you've reached rock-bottom or close to it when schools from other BCS conferences are lining up to get you on the schedule. The Big 10 gets the most credit - the Cuse opens up with Minnesota and Northwestern at home sandwiched around a trip to Penn State. This team will play eight home games this fall because of the non-con slate and the 4-home, 3-away nature of the Big East this year. The big question - how did this team beat Notre Dame and Louisville last fall. It's obviously a big question to the bigwhigs at those schools, too.
WEST VIRGINIA
It won't be the same watching the Mountaineers, sans Pat White at the controls of the offense. But backup Jarrett Brown is a fifth-year senior, and has played enough in the past to be able to adequately man the helm of a revamped, more pass-oriented spread (one that was similar to Rich Rodriguez ran when White was a freshman). There is no shortage of stud skill-position players anywhere. Seven of the top nine receivers should be back - this is one of the strongest groups in the nation. Noel Devine spearheads the rushing game. A rebuilt offensive line remains a question-mark, and head coach Bill Stewart is on record voicing his concerns about it.
As good as the WV offense can be if the line develops, the defense should be a strength this fall. The 3-3-5 is loaded with hard-hitting, speedy guys who can make big plays. The D-line is six-deep heading into camp and there are several solid linebackers. The secondary should be adequate at worst. This team held foes to 17 ppg last year, good for 11th in the nation.
Ask the bookie - It will be interesting to see how West Virginia plays in its early starts this fall. Stewart started implementing 6 am workouts in the offseason because he was dismayed with the Mountaineers' continued slow starts in the games that kicked off at noon. This is a big year for Stewart - it's the first without White, and the second since highly-regarded Rodriguez went to Michigan. Could this be the start of a slow decline? Or maybe Stewart will emphatically stamp his hire with another Big East title? It's certainly possible. However, the last six games are all in conference play, and WV has not finished well the last three seasons (4-11 in November and December ATS).
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