East
EAST CAROLINA
In all likelihood, this will be Skip Holtz's final season in Greenville. He garnered plenty of interest after the Pirates won their first C-USA title last year, beating Tulsa 27-24 in the league championship game. This is his fifth season and he has built a program that was able to start the season with upset wins over Virginia Tech and West Virginia last fall. ECU returns 35 of 44 on the two-deep, including 19 starters, so another fast start is expected. Sixth-year quarterback Patrick Pinckney will pilot the offense, and there is quality depth everywhere on offense, except at TE, where star Davon Drew was one of the few key losses.
Eight starters are back on the Pirate defense that ranked in the top three in all of the league's four major stats in 2008. There are few weaknesses, as stars litter the line (DE CJ Wilson, a 2009 Lombardi Watch list member), linebackers (Nick Johnson), and secondary (FS Van Eskridge). The Pirates play only three games at Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium before November, but this group should have the experience to handle the early road tests.
ASK the bookie? - With the schedule bring fairly rough early (Appalachian State at home, at West Virginia and at North Carolina), people will know early on if the Pirates are going to have any aspirations for an unbeaten season. Stiff tests await later (Virginia Tech visits Greenville in November, and ECU goes to Tulsa the very next week) - but this team has all of the pieces in place to make another surprise run. After some disappointing losses (1-8 ATS after the first two upsets), the Pirates fell off of a lot of maps before the upset as a 12-point dog to Tulsa in the C-USA title game. Can they build off of that win, and last year's early success? One thing's for sure - they are a favorite to win the league title again.
MARSHALL
It was just 10 years ago that Marshall, under then coach Bob Pruett, navigated through a perfect 13-0 season in the Mid-American Conference. The Thundering Herd and its fans have always had unreasonably high expectations, especially since the school effectively navigated up to 'big boy' status, elevating from the I-AA ranks to the MAC in the late 90s before eventually working themselves into C-USA after the 2004 season. But the decline was already in order - Marshall finished just 6-6 in its final MAC season. An off-season lawsuit filed by the school's former compliance director in August 2003 was finally settled earlier this year, and the allegations of improper jobs to ex-players, scapegoating, and other ugly messes reared their respective heads. The slow decline has had little to do with the job Mark Snyder has done. The Marshall faithful understand that he was left with quite a mess after Pruett resigned AFTER spring practice in 2005, yet their patience has to be wearing thin after a 16-31 record in Snyder's first four seasons.
The Herd have some pieces of the puzzle to get back to six wins, perhaps seven with some luck. It starts with all-everything DE Albert McClellan, who was the C-USA defensive player of the year in 2006 before suffering a devastating early injury in 2007. He appears to be back to the form of three years ago. The linebackers are solid, and the secondary should be slightly better. On the other side, none of four potential candidates has separated himself as a leading starting candidate and that's the immediate concern. The O-line is capable, there is a returning 1,000 yard rusher (Darius Marshall) and TE Cody Slate is a Mackey Award candidate.
ASK the bookie? - Seven of the 12 teams on Marshall's schedule last fall scored 27 or less, not bad considering some of the potent offenses in the league. Still, MU lost seven of eight to close out last season. Can a quarterback emerge to help pilot the Herd? If not, it will likely cost Snyder his job. With road trips to Virginia Tech and West Virginia outside of the league, wins won't come easy. It looks like .500 is the best this team can hope for, but a losing season and the likely axe for Snyder is more probable.
MEMPHIS
Key depth, an infusion of talented transfers and JUCOs, and an excited head coach are the highlights for Memphis heading in 2009. Ninth-year coach Tommy West believes this could be the season where the Tigers finally get over the hump. They finished 6-7 last fall after an 0-3 start and were blasted in the bowl game at South Florida, but four of the seven losses were by seven points or fewer. Memphis returns as many as four QBs who can contribute (if Will Hudgens is granted a sixth-year of eligibility), and the Tiger rushing attack (4.7 yards per carry) hopes to improve with two solid backups to Curtis Steele. The trouble lies in the offensive line, which loses four starters from a unit that allowed only 16 sacks in all of 2008.
The Tigers have quality depth in their front seven, though this is also a unit that allowed 4.7 yards per carry last fall. Two transfers in from the SEC are eligible this season and should shore up some of those shortcomings. West himself, an eternal optimist, has even labeled his secondary 'a work in progress', though it did improve from 100th in 2007 to a middle-of-the-pack 57th last season. The Tigers picked off only seven passes in 2008, a number that needs to go up against some of the aerially-advanced offenses in C-USA.
ASK the bookie? - The Tigers will know their pecking order in the C-USA totem pole by the end of November. They play four of their five division games from Sept. 26 through Oct. 27. But late-season trips to Houston and Tulsa to end the season could well determine whether West's team will go bowling again at the end of the 2009 season for the sixth time in seven years. The O-line and its early development will be crucial.
SOUTHERN MISS
One more team in the C-USA East with a world of optimism heading into the season is USM. The exceptions to the rule here, though, is that it is certainly justified. First-year coach Larry Fedora guided the Golden Eagles to a five-game winning streak to end the season, including a thrilling overtime win over Troy in the New Orleans Bowl. This followed a tough 2-6 start where four of the losses could have gone either way. With 15 starters back and all 12 games slotted in the 'winnable' column (no Alabama, or any other SEC team on the schedule for the first time since the 1980s), it's easy to see why Fedora is understandably excited.
The maturity was most evident on defense. In the 2-6 start, USM allowed at least 24 points against everyone. In the four-game stretch to end the regular season, the defense allowed just 35 points TOTAL. Seven starters return and there is plenty of strength up front. The secondary, having allowed 49 touchdown passes the last two years, obviously must take the biggest step forward. Meanwhile, eight starters return to an offense that broke 36 school records and tied six others in Fedora's first year of the no-huddle spread that is designed to put pressure on defenses. Stud RB Damion Fletcher enters his final season with almost 4,300 career rushing yards, and dual-threat QB Austin Davis will make his own case for C-USA offensive player of the year honors.
ASK the bookie? - The trip to Kansas on Sept. 26 could well be the lone hurdle that stands in the way of an 11-0 start for the Golden Eagles and their massive road trip to East Carolina to end the regular season on Nov. 28. If both teams play as they are capable throughout the conference season, the winner should earn a trip to play the West division winner for the league title.
UAB
Third-year coach Neil Calloway doubled his win total last year as the Blazers went 4-8. They also showed progress down the stretch, as the beleaguered defense played their three best games in November (winning 41-24 at Tulane, losing a close one to C-USA champ East Carolina 17-13 before shutting out (!) Central Florida in Orlando 15-0) to end the season. There were numerous offseason injuries, but everyone should be healthy once the Blazers report to camp in August. Calloway is trying to build his program the right way, including beefing up in-state recruiting efforts. UAB hasn't had a winning season since 2004, and it could be trouble to progress in the C-USA East, where most everyone figures to be solid or improved.
Athletic QB Joe Webb has a year of experience under his belt, but he made far too many mistakes last year, throwing 16 interceptions to just 10 touchdowns. The top 10 receivers all return, which gives him plenty of targets to look for, including RB Rashad Slaughter. Webb ran for nearly twice as many as yards as Slaughter last fall, however, and that probably has to change if UAB is going to progress offensively. Eight starters return to the defense, though with 46 touchdowns allowed last fall, 25 via the run, that might not be good thing... unless the Blazers come back in August showing the same form they had at the end of November last season. Specialist Swayze Waters was the first player in league history to win all-league honors as both a kicker and a punter, and he departs.
ASK the bookie? - The Blazers will know early whether they are any sort of serious C-USA player after opening with two C-USA West foes at home. After that Sept. 12 game against SMU, the Blazers play seven of their next nine games on the road. The last two games are against East Carolina and Central Florida again, just like in 2008. A winning season would be the next step in Calloway's progression as UAB coach, but it figures to be maybe another year or two away.
CENTRAL FLORIDA
Sixth-year UCF coach George O'Leary hopes that the 'bad year-good year' trend that started with his first season in 2004 continues this fall. The Golden Knights were 0-11 in his first season before UCF went 8-5 and appeared in the C-USA title game. In 2006, they slipped to 4-8 before a 10-4 record and conference title in 2007. Last fall, they were never able to replace stud RB Kevin Smith and fell back to 4-8. The offense ranked dead last in the nation in total offense. UCF also was at or near the bottom in third-down conversions, rushing yards per carry, points per game and touchdown passes. Pieces are in place for yet another rebound season, though, and they start with new offensive coordinator Charlie Taaffe, who has helped make several offenses in the CFL, The Citadel (where he was a 10-year head coach) and Maryland (2001-2005) tick successfully with balanced attacks.
QB Rob Calabrese was just a freshman last fall, but reports out of Orlando is that he's matured and should be ready to handle the speed of the the college game in his second season. Ten starters return on offense in all, including all of the top 6 rushers and top 9 receivers from 2008. Four O-line starters are back. On the other side, the UCF front seven might be the best in the league; six starters return from a group that led C-USA in rushing defense and was second in total defense and scoring defense. The weakness is glaring and obvious - UCF lost all four starters from the secondary and will need immediate development there. Departing are a stupefying 186 starts and 50 interceptions, and as many as four freshmen could be in the 2-deep.
ASK the bookie? - There won't be much time to develop the secondary. UCF, like so many other teams in the league, will know where it stands early. Trips to league favorites Southern Miss and East Carolina are both on the slate in September. By then, O'Leary will know whether this will be his third 'big' rebound season in six years or just a team that's good enough to maybe play .500 football and qualify for a minor bowl.
WEST DIVISION
HOUSTON
When Art Briles left his alma-mater after five wildly successful seasons and darted for Baylor, few figured his successor to enjoy the same offensive success. But Kevin Sumlin left the Oklahoma staff to take the head coaching job and brought in Dana Holgorsen (a Texas Tech/Mike Leach protege) to be his offensive coordinator. The Cougars ended up winning eight games by increasing their scoring output from 35 to 41 points per game and the yardage from 502 to 563 per contest. That was second to C-USA rival Tulsa in all of America. Nearly every skill performer on the two-deep returns this season! Junior Case Keenum (reigning C-USA Offensive Player of the Year) fired 44 touchdowns and just 11 interceptions last fall, and his ability to run (16 rushing touchdowns in his career) make the offense borderline unfair for outmanned foes to try and stop.
On the other side, the defense is equally inept. Oklahoma State and Air Force combined to run for 759 yards against the Cougars in back-to-back losses in September; sorry Marshall ran for 249 in a Huntington, W. Va. upset... and the pass defense gave up 755 yards combined against UTEP and Rice to close the regular season. Now star defensive end Phillip Hunt (14 sacks last year, ranking second in the nation) departs and there are many questions on the defensive line. Holes are abundant everywhere in the back seven as well. Obviously, it will be interesting to see what the linesmakers come up with as far as the totals go when Houston plays, particularly against equally-offensive minded Oklahoma State, Texas Tech and UTEP in Houston's first three lined games of the season.
ASK the bookie? - If the defense can get out of the month of September with its ego not too bruised after expected shellackings at the hands of the aforementioned Big XII South powers, then a 3-game road trip beckons in October before the meat-and-potatoes of the league slate awaits. The offense will be great, but there is an obvious concern about developing some semblance of a defense if the Cougars hope to unseat revenge-minded Tulsa (Houston beat the Hurricane 70-30 last fall) for the C-USA West division crown.
RICE
When David Bailiff went 3-9 in his first season in 2007 after the Owls made a 2006 bowl appearance (first since 1961), most observers thought the second-smallest I-A school would go back to anonymity. Chase Clement had other plans, though, and the Owls soundly beat Western Michigan in the Texas Bowl to end the season with 10 wins for the first time since 1949. A repeat will be tough - Clement ended his stellar career with 94 touchdowns and 24 touchdown rushes in the last three seasons. WR Jarrett Dillard broke the NCAA record for career touchdown catches with 60, and is a Jacksonville Jaguar now. TE James Casey was drafted by the Texans. Two four-year starters (including center Austin Wilkinson) depart from the O-line. And new offensive coordinator Ed Zaunbrecher comes in from Purdue to help usher in a new era of Rice offense.
There's a three-man battle to replace Clement; Alabama transfer Nick Fanuzzi will be the likely QB when it's all said and done. Rice was able to run the ball effectively last fall, and if the middle of the O-line can jell, the Owls might again have success on the ground, even though Clement and the top two rushers are gone. Two senior receivers (Toren Dixon and Corbin Smiter) combined for 80 catches last fall and will contribute heavily. On defense, the Owls have been overmatched in size, speed and depth for years. In 2008, things started to change toward the end of the season. Rice won seven straight to finish the season, and held three of the last six foes to 17 points or less. Nearly everyone who contributed on defense will be back this fall.
ASK the bookie? - Rice, like Houston, plays Texas Tech and Oklahoma State in September. If the defense can get through those expected shellackings, then things look up from there. The Owls should be competitive in every game in October and November. If the offense can develop early, then the season-finale against Houston could be for a decent bowl bid, if not the West crown.
SOUTHERN METHODIST
It will be interesting to see how far and fast June Jones will progress things in Dallas this fall. The SMU coach is the highest paid coach in the league by far. He inherited a team that was just 1-11 but had several close losses in 2007 and a lot of players back. Instead, he decided to expedite his youth movement and played several of his own recruits and guys brought in to play in his "Red Gun". The result was fairly predictable - another 1-11 season with no wins over FBS teams. QB Bo Levi Mitchell was named the starter as a true freshman over a 4-year senior last fall in a controversial move by Jones. The Mustangs will again be young this fall, but most of the newcomers will be backups, as nearly everyone returns who started and took lumps in 2008.
On defense, the Mustangs gave up 226 yards rushing per game (4.9 ypc) and 254 yards passing per game. The net result was a defense that ranked second-to-worst in the country. Jones is switching from a 4-3 to a 3-4 to utilize some of the speed he has recruited at linebacker. Still, the numbers don't lie. SMU yielded 33 touchdown passes and had just eight interceptions, and a poor pass rush (only 18 sacks) was as much to blame as the secondary. Both much improve immensely if the Mustangs want to compete with some of the elite attacks (TCU, East Carolina, Houston, Tulsa) they will see in October.
ASK the bookie? - The schedule is fairly forgiving and SMU could easily be 2-0 before a trip to Washington State. Wily Jones will make this team better, and the Mustangs WILL upset at least one team this year that they will be a significant underdog to. Carefully watch Mitchell's progress - as he goes, so goes the SMU offense. In his second season, the game should slow down for him a lot more this fall.
TULANE
The Green Wave started 2-2 last fall, with covering efforts in respectable losses to Alabama and East Carolina coming before wins over UL-Monroe and SMU. A 44-13 loss to Army in a game where Tulane was a 19.5 point favorite (most in a decade) started the downfall. As injuries mounted, the Green Wave lost their last eight games. The offense became ineffective as the starting QB, top WR and star RB all suffered season-ending injuries. The last four games were an exercise in futility, as Tulane essentially waved the white flag, giving up 46 ppg and 550 ypg in those losses, all non-competitive, non-covers.
QB Joe Kemp returns for his sophomore season after making a couple of starts before injury knocked him out. Stud RB Andre Anderson and wideout Jeremy Williams also return - the big concern is up front, as two mainstays with 83 combined starts depart (one, Troy Kropig, the LT, is in the NFL). This will also be Bob Toledo's third different defensive coordinator in three seasons. Steve Stanard is implementing a more aggressive scheme to get more big plays out of the defense, which had only 45 tackles for loss (last in the nation) and 17 takeaways in 2008.
ASK the bookie? - The schedule is top-heavy for success, as five of the first six games will be in New Orleans. Tulane plays exactly one conference road game before November 14. Only one of the last six games is at home, however. If the Green Wave don't make hay early on, especially with all of the top weapons healthy, it will be difficult for them to sniff .500.
TULSA
Todd Graham has guided the Golden Hurricane to two C-USA West Division titles in his first two seasons as the head coach, and he's done it with offense. A lot of offense. Tulsa again led the country in total offense in 2008 after doing the same in 2007. They gained nearly 8,000 yards (!), scored 661 points and won 11 games. The lone losses were by a touchdown at Arkansas, a 70-30 head-scratching eyesore at Houston and an upset loss to East Carolina at home in the C-USA title game, where they were -6 in turnovers. Offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn heads to Auburn, but Herb Hand (who was co-coordinator) stays on to run the show. Three QBs are in camp vying for the job, but lightly-regarded David Johnson, a career backup, stepped in and threw for more than 4,000 yards last fall, so "the system" will be largely responsible for the success of whoever gets the job.
Eight starters return to the Tulsa defense that was very good aside from the Houston debacle. No one else scored more than 35 points. Tulsa still runs the 3-3-5, and will blitz liberally out of it - this opens up the chance of big plays but also doesn't allow foes to get into a comfortable tempo with their offense. All of the linebackers return.
ASK the bookie? - The schedule is unforgiving early - trips to Tulane, New Mexico and Oklahoma all come in the first three weeks. The first home game against a 'board' team is a tough one (Oct. 14 against Boise State). The Golden Hurricane don't play a conference home game before Halloween - but by then, Graham will know if his team is headed for another 10-win season or not. The last three games are all against C-USA East contenders.
UTEP
Mike Price was hailed as a savior of sorts for the UTEP progam, guiding the Miners from the depths of constant losing seasons to consecutive 8-4 seasons in 2004 and 2005. The last three Miner units, however, haven't been able to outscore their foes and have all had losing seasons. Suddenly, Price is 30-30 at UTEP and in a little bit of hot water in El Paso. He hired former New Mexico assistant Osia Lewis to run the 3-3-5 defense that Rocky Long made popular at UNM. The defense, despite giving up 469 yards per game, was actually improved from the 500-plus per game output that C-USA teams put up in 2007. Still, the 77-35 loss in Tulsa was ghastly - the Golden Hurricane had 791 yards of total offense! Opponents scored 42 or more against UTEP SIX times last fall.
The defense is expected to struggle again, but could be somewhat improved. The linebackers appear to be improved despite the unit losing leading tackler Adam Vincent. The secondary is full of seniors, and in it second season with the new system, should also be better. Getting back Braxton Amy at the 'Miner' position (hybrid LB/safety) after he missed 2008 with an injury will also help; Amy led the team in tackles in 2007. On the other side, junior QB Trevor Vittatoe is back; he's thrown for 58 touchdowns and 16 interceptions in his first two seasons. There is no standout at RB but several capable backs figure to share the load, and the top two receivers return for Vittatoe.
ASK the bookie? - Not many will argue with how effective Price can be at helping his team score a lot of points and be offensively effecient. On the other side of the ball, things are radically different. UTEP's defense will have to shore up things and in a hurry if Price wants to have his team be competitive against the C-USA's best units. UTEP gets both Houston and Tulsa at home, and will have to beat at least one if it harbors outside hopes of winning the West. A three-game road stretch against the other three West teams to start November will likely ultimately decide whether the Miners can be C-USA West contenders, pretenders or a possible minor bowl candidate.
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