AKRON
The offense was competitive last fall, and nine starters return, in addition to a pair of former head coaches, in Walt Harris and Shane Montgomery. That should make the Zips fairly competitive in their first season playing on campus since 1940 (opening new Infocision Stadium to replace the ancient Rubber Bowl). The offense will have to figure out how to score enough points to keep the heat off sixth-year head coach J.D. Brookhart, as the Zips have had three straight losing seasons since a shocking 2005 MAC title.
Six starters return from one of the least aggressive defenses in the nation (1o4th against the pass, 100th against the run, and with two all-MAC players departed), one that gave up 31 ppg. Defensive coordinator Jim Fleming is staying with the 3-3-5 formation, but he needs to get some penetration and pass rushers, as the Zips also ranked in the bottom 20 in the country in sacks and tackles for loss. Akron returns three starters in the secondary, but the two corners are just 5-8 and 5-9, respectively, and teams will constantly pick on that smallishness.
ASK the bookie? - The Zips figure to get off to a 1-3 start going into their bye, so the heat will be on Brookhart to win in the conference and win in a hurry, or he might not make it out of the season. Four wins is the absolute best that can be seen from this team until the defense gets a little more talented and proactive.
BOWLING GREEN
Gregg Brandon had several fairly successful seasons at BG, but ultimately was let go after last season - his Falcons were at the lowest point scholastically in school history. Combine that with another .500 season, and it was time for the university to go in a different direction. In comes Dave Clawson, who is hiring a new staff, has a new offensive philosophy and new defensive schemes after spending one largely unsuccessful season as the offensive coordinator at Tennessee. Clawson made winners at Fordham and Richmond at the Division I-AA level before the move to Tennessee to pilot the fifth-worst total offense in the country.
New offensive coordinator Wayne Ruggiero wants to run the ball, despite BG having no real feature backs on their roster, and no one coming in the fall. That goes against the direct strength of senior quarterback Tyler Sheehan, who completed 67 percent last year, with 20 touchdowns and nine interceptions. On defense, stopping the run is of chief concern. There are no veteran starters returning to the defensive front and the linebackers lack experience. The secondary is the strength of the team, but the front seven have to do their job to let the secondary shine.
ASK the bookie? - A road trip to Missouri and a home game against Boise are all but guaranteed losses, and BG should also struggle with Troy and Marshall. Will the players fold the tent if they start out 0-4 for the new regime? Drawing Ball State and Central Michigan out of the West in the rotation this year does BG no favors, either. It's worth monitoring closely. On paper, the Falcons look like a four-win team, tops.
BUFFALO
Turner Gill certainly deserved all of the national recognition he got last year for finally revitalizing the UB football program. It won its first-ever MAC title, made its first bowl appearance and Gill got job looks at Auburn, among other bigger schools in the college football world. This, just two years removed from UB playing 7-51 football in the MAC over a five-year span. Where Gill really deserves the credit is HOW his Bulls were able to win games. Most smart minds still scratch their heads over just how the Bulls won seemingly every close game. Against Ball State, they were seemingly outmanned but took TWO Nate Davis turnovers inside the red zone back for touchdowns - a literal 28-point swing. The Bulls were plus-20 in turnovers, masking a porous 94th-ranked defense. Quarterback Drew Willy threw just 12 interceptions in 845 attempts over the last two seasons.
Willy departs, as do three offensive linemen, though other offensive veterans return. The D-line returns only one starter. Gill has recruited hard at linebacker, and that figures to be the next area where the Bulls will improve. Four all-MAC candidates return in the secondary, which is undoubtedly the strength. Expect Gill to continue to play it safe by handing off to RB James Starks to try to control the ball. The Bulls have covered in seven straight MAC Games away from UB Stadium, so it's hard to argue with success, but...
ASK the bookie? - Good story aside, the 2008 team has to go down as the worst MAC champion ever. The Bulls beat Temple by 2 at home and Akron and Bowling Green both in overtime on the road. Their 5-3 league mark could have have easily been 2-6; Temple was just a game back and four teams in the MAC West were 5-3 or better. The Bookie respects Gill, but calls for a serious regression in 2009. Gill will be doing well to get the Bulls above .500 this season, but five or six wins is what The Bookie calls for.
KENT STATE
Usually, college football coaches get no more than three or four years to get a program turned around to the point where boosters and administrators are happy. Kent State is now in the process of giving Doug Martin his sixth. Judging by a crowd of 2,267 in late November at Dix Stadium for a four-touchdown loss to Northern Illinois, there's a good bet that he won't get a seventh. The Golden Flashes are, with Buffalo's recent surge, unquestionably the dregs of the MAC. There has not been a winning record at Kent since 2001, and no bowl game since 1972. Unfortunately, things don't figure to change too much this fall. QB Julian Edelman is gone to graduation, though Martin insists he's not worried, as the two returnees will make KSU 'better in the passing game'.
Eugene Jarvis returns and hopes to get back to his 2007 form, where he ran for 1,669 yards and 13 touchdowns before injuries derailed him last year. Four linemen return to aid him. Nine receivers return who caught at least seven passes last fall, but a gamebreaker needs to emerge to take heat off the running game and to make whoever wins the QB job easier. It doesn't look like there is anything much above mediocrity at wideout, unfortunately. On defense, the Flashes have given up 30 ppg or more in four of Martin's five seasons. They were 12th in the MAC in red zone defense in 2008.
ASK the bookie? - There are no cover corners or linebackers who can make plays to the outside. The special teams were particularly poor last fall, ranking in the bottom-five in punt returns and kickoff returns. It looks like the swan song for Martin unless Jarvis stays healthy and Kent can figure out how to grind out a few wins. The non-conference schedule looks like another 1-3 offering is in the cards, and four or five wins looks like the ceiling again in 2009.
MIAMI (OHIO)
Sometimes you swing and miss. That's what happened to Miami (Ohio) after largely-successful coach Terry Hoeppner went to Indiana. Hoeppner was in the midst of resurrecting the IU program when he was diagnosed with cancer and eventually lost the battle. Miami promoted young assistant Shane Montgomery, and in four years, he won only 17 of 48 games. Does anyone remember Ben Roethlisberger? It was just five short years ago that the RedHawks lost only to Iowa and were ranked in the top-15 in the country after thrashing Louisville in the bowl game. In steps Mike Haywood, a well-thought-of and well-travelled assistant. He's been cutting his teeth most recently at Notre Dame as offensive coordinator for the last four years.
The RedHawks scored just 18 ppg last year, a ghastly 107th in the country. Daniel Raudabaugh returns as the quarterback, but after throwing for less than 2,000 yards and having more interceptions than touchdowns (9 to 8), his grip is far from secure on the job. The O-line is young, and the skill players are below normal Miami standards. On defense, Haywood talked Carl Reese out of his four-year retirement to be the coordinator. Reese has worked with Haywood at LSU and Texas previously. The linebackers and secondary figure to be okay, if not solid, but the D-line is an area of concern. Miami had just 11 sacks last year, ranking 108th, and lost both defense ends.
ASK the bookie? - A neutral site game against Kentucky in the opener means that the RedHawks won't play at Yager Stadium until October 3rd, which is a visit from arch-rival and Orange Bowl participant Cincinnati. If Haywood's troops don't get too down on what he's trying to implement after the first six weeks (1-5 or 0-6 start is conceiveable), then things soften up later. Four of the last five are at home and the RedHawks could be a live dog in November.
OHIO U.
Frank Solich endured his roughest season yet in Athens last fall, as the Bobcats sunk to 4-8. In large part, the problems were due to the inability of OU to run the football, a staple of Solich's since he was in charge at Nebraska. The Bobcats averaged 39 carries per game in Solich's first three years at Ohio, and just 31 carries last fall. A big problem stemmed from Ohio falling behind and having to chuck it late to get back in games. Ohio also turned the ball over 31 times last fall en route to a -14 turnover margin against I-A foes, ranking in the bottom 10 in the nation. Expect things to turn back for the better this fall.
Two senior QBs are fighting for the job, and both are capable and have had starting experience. Four of the top five receivers and all of the four top rushers return. Losing a pair of good tight ends hurt, as Solich relies heavily on the TE in his offense. On the other side, the linebackers and secondary could each be solid if not spectacular, but there is work to be done up front. There was little to no penetration or pass rush last season, and a lot of that had to do with the size inside as well as the depth of the front four. Eight veterans return to the defense in all.
ASK the bookie? - Ohio is marked for a bounceback this fall if Boo Jackson or Theo Scott can capably manage the offense without turning the ball over so frequently. The season opener is at home against a rebuilding UConn team implementing the spread offense without the benefit of their starting QB or their RB, who led the nation in rushing last fall. North Texas on the road is winnable, as is always-tough Cal Poly SLO (I-AA) at home. If OU can go into MAC play at 2-2 or 3-1, the first two road games in the division are also winnable. The Bookie calls for Ohio to surprise the rest of the East and win no less than seven games and be in the thick of a bowl discussion.
TEMPLE
Al Golden has slowly built his program the right way from the ground up. The progress in the 'wins' department will come this year. The Owls won four games in 2007 and five last fall, both a little fewer than they had hoped for. But the Owls are a respectable 9-10 since the middle of 2007, and despite being young, they are very experienced, with good MAC-quality depth. Veteran QB Adam DiMichele graduated one year too early to lead what will be the best Temple team since 1990. In fact, last season's five wins were the most for the Owls since 1990 - the last time they had a winning record. The QB position might be the only weakness, with two underclassmen battling going into fall. The Owls have struggled to run the ball under Golden, and last season's 109 ranking in the nation has been about par for the course. The line is young, but experienced, and the running backs all return.
The defense is going to win a lot of games for Temple. Defensive coordinator Mark D'Onofrio's unit allowed just 23 ppg, their fewest since 1987, and most everyone returns. The secondary is chock-full of talent and depth, and the front seven are more experienced, but need to get more pressure on the quarterback. This is the MAC's top linebacking corps, and the solid special teams groups return almost intact, as well.
ASK the bookie? - This is the year it finally goes good for the Owls, and they'll start getting the breaks. They were 5-7 last fall, and that was despite losing two non-conference games in overtime, and three conference games by a total of nine points. Ten wins was entirely possible!!! The first game won't be on the board (against Villanova) and there is a bye before a trip to Penn State and then a mammoth home game against Buffalo at the end of September to set the table for a MAC East run. The Bookie is calling for Temple to win the MAC East and no less than eight games, and maybe 10 games, in 2009!
West
BALL STATE
Kudos to Brady Hoke for his excellent leadership of the Ball State program the last six seasons in Muncie at his alma mater. Hoke took the San Diego State job shortly after the MAC Championship loss to Buffalo, the team's first of the year. Offensive coordinator Stan Parrish took the reigns before the bowl game against Tulsa, and Cardinal fans winced and can only hope things don't go this poorly going forward. Starting QB Nate Davis had another turnover-filled disaster in a driving rainstorm, and the defense looked lost, yielding 632 yards in a 45-13 shellacking. Parrish, in his 60s, has been an assistant for 20-plus years. He was the head coach at K-State BEFORE Bill Snyder, going 2-30-1 in three seasons, then getting axed.
Redshirt frosh Kelly Page steps in to try to fill the large shoes of Davis. He's hurt by an O-line that has just one returning starter. The Cards also lost a standout wideout and a tight end with an NFL future. Everyone else returns. On defense, new coordinator Doug Graber ditched the former 3-4 and went to a 4-3 scheme that will have success if a veteran defensive line can stay healthy. Both safties are back, although new corners must step in, and there is experience at linebacker. The Cards should also enjoy good special teams, as K Ian McGarvey returns after an 111-point season.
ASK the bookie? - Until 2008, the non-conference schedule was unmanageable. Last season, though, the Cards won at Indiana and Western Kentucky and beat Northeastern and Navy at home en route to an eventual 12-0 season. The non-conference schedule is again not brutal, with only a trip to Auburn looking unwinnable. It's hard to imagine a serious decline immediately after a 12-0 season, though there will be a dropoff with the losses of Davis and Hoke. The Cards will have a chance to win the West in November, as they play three division foes to end the season after a bye. Call for at least seven wins and a chance to bowl again.
CENTRAL MICHIGAN
The Chippewas have played in three straight Motor City Bowls, led the league in attendance last fall, and Butch Jones again assembled what most are calling the top MAC recruiting class again. The 'x-factor' to get the Chippewas back to the top of the MAC in 2009, though, is all-MAC QB Dan LeFevour. The senior completed 69 percent of his passes with a 21-to-6 TD/int ratio last season and is in select company (with Tim Tebow) as the only quarterbacks in college football history to run and throw for 2,000 yards in one season. LeFevour has thrown for 9,467 yards and 74 touchdowns in his career, and ran for 2,235 yards and 32 more touchdowns. Jones wants a RB to emerge to take some of the pressure off his fifth-year quarterback. The receiving corps is the best in the MAC, and three starters return on the O-line.
Ten starters return from a defense that should improve. It led the MAC in sacks, yet still placed second-to-last in major college football in passing yards allowed in 2008 - an odd stat until you think that sacks count as rushing yards lost in the stats in college. Still, the secondary was repeatedly torched against a QB with a pulse. The linebackers all return, but for a team that yielded 32 ppg last year, that might not be a good thing. What could put CMU over the top is its impressive special teams, as the Chips boast the leading punt returner in America and two veteran, solid kickers.
ASK the bookie? - Pray that the key components stay healthy in the first two weeks when Central visits Arizona and Michigan State. Another tough non-conference game is later, when the Chippewas visit Boston College. That game would be much better to get in September, before BC gets acclimated to its new coaches and systems. The Chips get key conference games on the road, as well, as they will play at Western Michigan and Ball State in two contests that could determine their post-season fate. CMU plays seven road games, and all of those teams were bowl-eligible last fall. That might make it tough for the Chips to reclaim the West.
EASTERN MICHIGAN
Out with Jeff Genyk and in with Ron English. The ex-Michigan and Louisville defensive coordinator takes over in Ypsilanti after the Eagles won exactly eight games in the last three years. The good news is that three of those were last year, and two more wins were realistically possible. The 107 points scored by the offense in the last two games is encouraging, especially considering eight starters (including QB Andy Schmitt) return. Four starters return on the O-line and English was as happy with that unit as anyone in the spring.
The defense, to put it kindly, was atrocious. It ranked in the bottom 20 in nearly every meaningful statistic. There are eight returning starters, but very few jobs should be secure with the new coaching staff in place. English went the JUCO route to try to fix some of the problems up front. The top two tacklers departed as well, which won't help in the rebuilding process.
ASK the bookie? - The offense is sure to keep EMU in a lot of games, but the defense won't let them compete in a few of them, as well. EMU opens with Army at home, but that's the only winnable non-MAC game. The Eagles haven't won more than four games in a season since 1995. In this, English's first season, they won't, either.
NORTHERN ILLINOIS
Jerry Kill left Southern Illinois and a successful I-AA program (he beat Northern Illinois 34-31 in 2007) to take over in DeKalb in 2008 and did a fabulous job. NIU was 2-10 in 2007, and last season he used a solid defense to pilot the Huskies into the Independence Bowl. The Huskies finished with losses in four of their last five and were just 6-7 on the season, but Kill got good progress out of his team and has the advantage of extra bowl practices to work with as he heads into the fall. Redshirt freshman Chandler Harnish was forced (out of necessity) to run the offense last year. He ended up leading the team in both passing and rushing, but was often overwhelmed and confused. The good news is that he's been through a season and should be stronger as a sophomore. The Huskies have also struggled to run the ball the last couple of seasons. That was a big reason why Northern was so poor in the red zone, ranking near the bottom of the country in red zone efficiency. Eight starters return overall to an offense that has to do better if NIU has MAC West aspirations.
The defense returns just five starters from last season's stout 18 ppg group. Kill is reputed to be a master motivator and six of the top eight return up front, so even though Larry English was taken 16th overall, he insists that the front four could still be dominating. The linebackers could be decent, while the secondary is the concern, losing three of four starters.
ASK the bookie? - Kill has to replace 20 seniors from last season's 6-7 group. If he can shore up the special teams and get the young offense players to develop into weapons, then a repeat of last year and maybe another win or two is possible. The Huskies look a notch below the top three in the West.
TOLEDO
Gambling scandals, arrests, losing records (the last three seasons) and a general overall lack of discipline marred the Toledo football program. Out goes Tom Amstutz, who last took the Rockets bowling in 2005, and in comes Tim Beckman. The new head coach was the defensive coordinator for Oklahoma State the last two seasons, and was at Ohio State and Bowling Green before that. He's prepared three different schools for six bowl games over the last six seasons. The Rockets bottomed out in 2008 at 3-9, the first time they didn't win at least four games since 1978! They were shut out by Ball State, the first time they had been blanked in a game since 1998.
The Rockets return 18 starters on both sides of the ball, and that will go a long way to help Beckman rebuild. He's helping new offensive coordinator Matt Campbell install an Oklahoma-style spread offense that is up-tempo and attack oriented. The Rockets have very capable senior QB Aaron Opelt to pilot the controls, and the same line in front of him that he had in 2008. Expect Toledo to do its fair share of scoring, but the defense is going to inhibit the ability of the Rockets to win consistently. They actually IMPROVED last year to No. 102 in pass efficiency defense and No. 96 against the run.
ASK the bookie? - The non-conference schedule is not forgiving. All four pre-MAC games (at Purdue, Colorado at home, Ohio State at home and Florida International on the road) are imposing on paper, and Toledo draws tough Temple from the East. If the Rockets stay healthy after the September grinder, then they could win some games later. In the first season of the new regime, a safer bet is for four wins, and any more earns Beckman a pat on the back.
WESTERN MICHIGAN
The Broncos played in their second bowl in three seasons last fall, and Bill Cubit readies for his fifth season with stud QB Tim Hiller set to man the controls for seemingly the ninth season. He's played in parts of the last four years and has more than 8,000 yards passing in his WMU career. Star RB Brandon West also returns after a 1,000 yard season. Hiller threw for 37 scores and 10 interceptions last season, as the Broncos scored at least 22 points in 11 of the 12 regular season games. Points might be a bit more difficult to come by, though, as Western loses all-everything receiver Jamarko Simmons, who had more than 3,000 yards receiving in his career.
On the other side, WMU returned nine starters and had nine seniors on defense, yet still failed to improve on 2007's shabby numbers. The unit finished 87th in America overall, and 102nd against the pass. The front did a good job in shaving nearly a yard per carry off the 4.7 allowed in 2007. WMU only has two really big guys up front and if either goes down, the Broncos are really in trouble when trying to stop the run. The secondary is being replaced entirely, as 168 career starts are lost to graduation, so it's hard to expect much out of that group of Steve Morrison's defense.
ASK the bookie? - Hiller has to be great if Western wants to get themselves back to a bowl - but he needs help. The defense has got to be better and another homerun threat needs to emerge to replace Simmons. Only one of the four non-conference games looks winnable and there are no byes (there is 10 days between the trip to Eastern Michigan and the home finale against Ball State). Western looks a step below Ball State and Central Michigan in the West, and draws Buffalo out of the East. Six or seven wins looks like the ceiling, but don't be surprised if they end up winning just five if breaks don't go their way early. |
