AIR FORCE
Third-year head coach Troy Calhoun has confirmed that he was the man to take over for crafty longtime coach Fisher DeBerry when AFA decided it was time for a change. The shrewd former flyboy has stepped in and guided his Falcons to back-to-back surprising bowl bids. With four-year starter Shaun Carney gone before the 2008 season started, many called for the Falcons to regress mightily. Instead, two freshmen (Tim Jefferson and Asher Clark) stepped in and were a potent combo. Now Calhoun is openly ambitious in trying them both at quarterback. Defensive coordinator Tim DeRuyter, another ex-flyboy, was able to sustain a decent defense despite heavy graduation. There could be a lot more activity up front this fall, as on paper, this looks like the best Air Force secondary in at least a decade. Eight starters (check the status of Reggie Rembert), including both corners and safeties.
The Falcons will continue to baffle and befuddle foes with the quirky spread option. There is loads of experience and depth up front. The offense is a big change-of-pace for everyone in the Mountain West. Despite seeing it year in and year out, it doesn't get any easier to defend. The influx of spread offenses into the league (now at New Mexico?) means fewer straight power rushing teams. Advantage, Flyboys.
ASK the bookie? - First, expect AFA to reassume control of the Commander-In-Chief Trophy, which it dominated until the last six years. A trip to Navy the first Saturday in October will decide whether it goes back to Colorado Springs this year, or stays in Annapolis. Calhoun has won eight and nine games his first two regular seasons. A similar result this fall appears to be in the cards.
BRIGHAM YOUNG
Bronco Mendenhall has figured out how to win 76 percent of his games in the first four seasons of his Provo tenure, including an eye-popping 32 in the last three years. Still, the Mormons certainly are a bit jealous of in-state rival Utah's even MORE stunning success (the Utes were unbeaten and finished second in the final polls). With Brigham Young playing in four straight Las Vegas Bowls, perhaps the faithful might be on the right track when wanting more, but understanding in this system's current setup, it will be difficult. BYU lost in Salt Lake City in the season finale, as six turnovers did the Cougars in as UU finished its unbeaten regular season, 48-24. A bowl loss to Arizona sends BYU into the season on a two-game losing streak. Only four offensive starters are back, and the season opens at the new Dallas Cowboys Stadium against national-finalist Oklahoma.
Now, the good news: after the expected early loss to OU, the Cougars can get back to focusing on winning the Mountain West, though it won't be easy. The good news is that TCU and Utah, the two teams that beat BYU in the regular season last year, both come to Provo this time around. QB Max Hall returns after a season where he threw for almost 4,000 yards and 35 touchdowns - though he had a knack for disappearing in the two big games last year. Only one starter returns up front, but with Mormon missions, the Cougars can plug in guys who were out for a year or two on missions with no loss in eligibility. Expect a reloading there, as well as at receiver, where Austin Collie (106 catches) left for the NFL. There are eight starters back on defense but the pass rush was disappointing out of the 3-3-5 last season, and the secondary experienced some key losses.
ASK the bookie? - The pressure will be off after the Oklahoma game. Florida State comes to Provo two weeks later in what shapes to be an interesting game. There look to be a few too many holes to expect BYU to keep up with the top two on a weekly basis, though a win over either Utah or TCU at home would be a good bet. Seven or eight wins and perhaps yet another trip to Vegas is in the cards for the Cougars.
COLORADO STATE
Many figured things to go rough for first-year coach Steve Fairchild in Fort Collins last fall. He was hired to have the unenviable task of replacing well-regarded Sonny Lubick after the latter's long tenure as the CSU head coach. Fairchild's first college head coaching job was at his alma mater, and he semi-amazingly guided the Rams to a .500 regular season and a bowl win over Fresno State in New Mexico. The Rams were competitive against TCU and BYU at home, losing by nine points combined despite being DD-dogs in both games. Enough weapons departed Colorado State after the season to think another bowl might not be repeatable. Then again, most people had CSU pegged for the cellar or close to it before 2008, and Fairchild coaxed seven wins out of his group.
He called his quarterbacks "awful" and "embarassing" after the spring game; obviously, this is an issue that needs to be fixed. No one of four have emerged heading into fall camp. Four starters are back on the O-line, and the two leading wideouts are also back. CSU's defense was surprisingly stout at times, despite recording only NINE sacks the entire season. The Rams have a few guys who can hit hard and return everyone to the secondary.
ASK the bookie? - Fairchild did a lot with a little in his first season as the head coach in Colorado Springs. Counting the UNLV game, where the Rams were losing until scoring the go-ahead touchdown with nine seconds left, they were plus-3 in the net wins category. While that's good coaching, a little luck might have also been involved. The Rams have a tenable schedule, with road games that can be won in November. This team should struggle to get to .500 again, but trips to BYU and TCU are the only built-in losses on the slate.
NEW MEXICO
The Lobos will have a new coach roaming the sidelines this fall for the first time since 1998, as Rocky Long guided the Lobos to bowl-eligibility in seven of his final eight seasons. This, from a team that won its own New Mexico Bowl in 2007 for its first bowl win since 1961! Still, after a disappointing 4-8 injury-marred season in 2008, Long decided to hang it up - and no one really tried to stop him. Long will be the defensive coordinator for Brady Hoke at San Diego State, and in charge of implementing the 3-3-5 at New Mexico's Mountain West rival this fall. In the meantime, Mike Locksley takes over, coming in from Illinois, where he ran the offense under Ron Zook. Locksley also helped Zook at Florida, and is known as a solid coordinator and recruiter.
Getting them to come to Albuquerque is one thing; getting them to stay might be another. Locksley got highly-touted QB Emmanuel Yeager out of Washington D.C. in for the spring - but Yeager got homesick and headed home shortly thereafter. Senior Donovan Porterie will again be the man this year, most likely. He threw for more than 3,000 yards in 2007 before a knee injury last fall. The Lobos want to run a no-huddle spread that Locksley utilized with Juice Williams last year. The top two rushers, including 1,100-yard stud Rodney Ferguson, depart. Locksley is making the call to scrap Long's 3-3-5 in favor of a 4-3 with defensive coordinator Doug Mallory coming over from LSU to help ease the transition. Without the unique defensive looks, the Lobos might well struggle in the spread-happy MWC.
ASK the bookie? - A brutal early slate includes trips to Texas A&M and Texas Tech, with home games against Tulsa, Air Force and New Mexico State sandwiched in between. If they can win two of those games, consider the start of the Locksley regime a wild success. With only nine seniors (fewest in the league) back this fall, a three-win season looks to be within a win either way of the best the Lobos can hope for as Locksley begins to script his own chapter of Lobo football history.
SAN DIEGO STATE
The Aztecs hope they got it right this time in the coaching department. High profile hire Chuck Long was only able to produce nine wins in his three seasons before finally being bought out at the end of last season. In steps Ball State ex-coach and alum Brady Hoke, who helped pilot the Cardinals to a 12-0 season before a loss to Buffalo in the MAC title game. Hoke was obviously intrigued with the possibility of getting to recruit west coast talent into San Diego. He'll need to start up front - on both sides. The Aztecs were second-to-last of 119 teams at stopping the run, and third-to-worst at running the ball. They finished 2-10 last fall, including losses to Cal Poly SLO and New Mexico (Rocky Long, the new SDSU defensive coordinator, was at the helm of the New Mexico team that thrashed the Aztecs 70-7 last fall).
A positive for Hoke is that there appears to be talent leftover from the Chuck Long regime that should make the defense immediately more competitive, especially in the back seven. Both defensive ends return, but there is a lot of work to do for the Aztec defense to be competitive. On the other side, Hoke brought in Al Borges to run his offense. Borges piloted Auburn to the top-scoring offense in the SEC in 2004 and 2005 and was a two-time Broyles Award finalist for the nation's top assistant back in 1997 and 1998. Nine starters return, but Borges's biggest challenge is - surprise, surprise - finding someone who can run the ball. Sophomore Ryan Lindley (16 TD's, 9 interceptions) was at least solid and had spectacular moments in his first campaign.
ASK the bookie? - Because of the coaching hires, this will be a team to watch closely. Don't pencil in an automatic loss to UCLA in the opener. After that, the Aztecs don't play a home game on the board until Oct. 3, and two weeks later BYU comes to town for the first conference home game. That one will tell a lot, but don't be surprised if this group of coaches don't turn things around sooner rather than later. Six wins and bowl eligibility looks like a realistic goal in Hoke's first season.
TEXAS CHRISTIAN
Schools near and far, big and small all came after Gary Patterson after last season. The longest-tenured MWC coach will start his ninth season hoping to do even better than the 11 wins he's piloted the Horned Frogs to in three of the last four seasons. Many will argue that Patterson has the best job OUTSIDE the BCS - a Texas school in the best non-BCS conference. That could be keeping him around - but a plethora of experience that returns from last year's impressive unit is just as likely of an answer.
Seven starters graduate from a defense that was the best in the country, though slick DC Dick Bumpas had to replace six starters from the 2007 unit, so reload might be the proper word in Fort Worth. Defensive end Jerry Hughes led the nation with 17 sacks in 2008 - but he returns without anyone else that has D-line starting experience. The pass defense gave up only 48 percent completion percentage to all opponents and returns both senior starting corners and should again give people fits out of the quirky 4-2-5. On offense, long-tenured and well-respected Mike Schultz moves on to Illinois, so the QB and RB coach will share play-calling duties. Patterson has indicated that not much will change - QB Andy Dalton returns to run an offense that smashed school records for touchdowns and points (56 and 437, respectively). The RB's are talented and deep, and five receivers who caught at least 30 passes return.
ASK the bookie? - TCU might well be favored in ACC trips to Virginia and Clemson in September. If the Frogs can get through those two games unscathed, the two tests figure to be revenge-minded BYU in Provo and a trip from Utah to Fort Worth three weeks later. TCU should be favored in no less than 10 games, and will win at least that many if everyone stays healthy and the defense gives Hughes some help up front.
UNLV
Many times in the past, The Bookie has been fooled by what turns to be a mirage out in the high desert. It comes in the form of predicting a finish significantly higher than UNLV ever decides to churn out in MWC play. Perhaps the players are distracted by "other" things in Sin City during the season. But, it's time to try it again - another upper-division finish in the talent-laden MWC. Fifth-year coach Mike Sanford has only won 11 games so far, but last season the Rebels were one win away in the season finale from bowl eligibility. The AD saw enough progress to give Sanford a three-year extension. The last time the Rebels went bowling was 2000, but that could change...
If the Rebs stay healthy and show up against the lower-rung MWC teams. TWO solid quarterbacks are capable to lead the Rebel Shotgun spread (think Alex Smith in 2004 with Sanford as OC under Urban Meyer at unbeaten Utah). Sanford most importantly needs to develop a running back to replace all-everything Frank "The Tank" Summers, who had a running style similar to Jerome Bettis. No one has emerged heading into August - and that's the one offensive concern, as four starters return up front. On defense, Sanford loaded up on JUCO defensive backs, hoping to solve the problems there immediately. The Rebs were gashed for 5 yards per carry last fall, but Sanford is optimistic that this is his best front seven yet. We'll see.
ASK the bookie? - With seven home games again and 14 returning starters, the Rebels should be able to improve on last season's win total and go bowling. A 3-2 start before the BYU visit should go a long way to get them close - the Rebels outgained BYU in Provo last fall. Let's call for a slight improvement to 6-6 and a bowl. Don't be surprised if UNLV pulls a surprise or two this fall if the defense can just be competent.
UTAH
What can you do for an encore, Kyle Whittingham? Utah ended last season by going 13-0 and finishing with the nation's No. 2 ranking. A few games were escapes, no doubt (four by a total of 11 points) - but the 31-17 massacre of Alabama in the Sugar Bowl was no accident. Losing both coordinators to higher-profile jobs wasn't, either. Half of the starters depart, including four-year starting QB Brian Johnson, the top three receivers by catches and three solid O-linemen. New OC Dave Schramm thinks the receivers should be able to step in without much of a dropoff, and bullish senior RB Matt Asiata will take on a greater role now. Three different guys are vying for a shot under center.
On defense, the Utes have a bit more stability, returning seven starters. Two corners were drafted to the NFL, but the coaches think Brandon Burton and R.J. Stanford can step in and be studs, just like many of their predecesors. The front seven figure to be among the league's best again. Losing PK/P Louie Sakoda and the three games he directly won win his toe (22-of-24 on FG's last year) will certainly sting, as well.
ASK the bookie - The Utes draw conference rivals TCU and BYU in the road in two of the last three weeks of the season, sandwiched around a home game against San Diego State. The big test before that comes in the form of a trip to a road trip to Oregon in the third week of the season. The Utes could easily be 8-1 before the trip to Fort Worth and right in the thick of another Mountain West title.
WYOMING
New coach Dave Christensen comes in from Missouri, where he ran the offense for Gary Pinkel since the two were at Toledo. The latest departure from Laramie is Joe Glenn, whose highlight was a 2004 Las Vegas Bowl win over UCLA. The Cowboys were nine games below .500 in the last four years, and despite a win over Tennessee on the road, Glenn's fate was sealed. Perhaps the strength of the Mountain West is best illustrated from that game. The Cowboys were outscored by a dizzying 185-17 in their first five league games before upsetting San Diego State and then Tennessee. Christensen won't bring Chase Daniel or Jeremy Maclin from Mizzou, and that could pose a problem for a pedestrian offense that put up more than 16 points just THREE times in 2008.
The cupboard is not bare, as the new coach goes to the same spread that he ran at Mizzou and has Karsten Sween back as a fourth-year starter. Sween, who has to be as happy as anyone as his chances to play at the next level go up immensely, ran the spread in high school, so look for his best season yet after a disappointing start to his Cowboy career. There is talent, but a third different scheme in three years could well mean a slow start. On the other side of the ball, the Cowboy defense is a major strength. Given the atrociousness of the offense, it performed quite stellar in 2008, ranking second in the MWC in pass defense. Three starters return in the secondary. The Cowpoke 3-4 defense allowed only 3.7 yards per carry and return all of its starters on an all-senior D-line. Two new linebackers are a cause for concern heading into camp.
ASK the bookie? - Small things could mean a big turnaround in Laramie. Just shoring up the abysmal minus-22 turnover rating from last fall might tack on a couple of extra wins. A schedule that includes visits from Texas, BYU and TCU to Laramie won't help in the win/loss column, but the 4-23 spread mark of Glenn in the last 27 home games doesn't figure to continue. Most winnable games are on the road and can be thrown in the 'coin flip' category if Sween adaps to the spread like The Bookie thinks he might. Wyoming could be 4-3 heading into the bye, but 5-2 gives the Cowboys a better chance at a bowl as the last five are against tough conference competition. |
