SOUTHEASTERN
East
FLORIDA
Defending national champion Florida looks to win their third national championship in the last four years. Senior QB Tim Tebow has an opportunity to lead his team to three national titles. (and yes, he's 'saving himself', a question that came up in SEC Media Days. The jokes about other stuff is what the bookie finds more amusing. Tim Tebow was once sleeping on his stomach when he got morning wood and struck oil. Tim Tebow's hand is the only hand that beats a Royal Flush. Tim Tebow has 12 moons, one of which is Earth.) The high-powered, balanced Gators have only turned it over 28 times in their last 25 games, a large reason why they've been successful. Charlie Strong's defense only allowed 12.9 ppg last season, and it returns EVERY player in the two-deep, all 22 of them. Standout senior MLB Brandon Spikes is the leader of the defense, which should threaten to hold opponents under 10 ppg throughout the season if the offense can continue to make the other team work to score.
Florida did benefit from plus-22 in turnovers, but for the elite programs, that's not an accident. As good as Tebow is at protecting the ball, UF should again have another big turnover margin. The Gators have simply reloaded on offense. No less than five or six young Gators are eager to fill the cleats of departed Percy Harvin. One note for pointspread purposes after Tebow is pulled from blowouts - redshirt freshman John Brantley has shown tremendous progress in the last year, throwing for 214 yards and three scores in the spring game. Don't look for a big letdown once Tebow goes to the bench.
ASK the bookie? - The Gators covered in each of their last nine after the Ole Miss loss at home (12-1 ATS, 13-1 overall in 2008) and are 22-5 against the number in their last 27 board games. They are NOT The Bookie's friend going into the season because of this recent run. The schedule is very feasible for another BCS run. Despite only three league home games (Georgia in Jacksonville is considered the Gators's home game this fall), there aren't any spots where Florida won't be a heavy favorite except for a Oct. 10 to Baton Rouge. It's hard to bet against Urban Meyer and the Gators - ever - so long as Tebow is around.
GEORGIA
Mark Richt starts his ninth season in Athens as one of the more successful coaches this decade - he's won 82 games in eight seasons, and is one of only five coaches in SEC history to win 10 games in four consecutive seasons, which he accomplished from 2002-2005. The Dawgs slipped a bit in 2006, but finished the season No. 2 in 2007 despite lowered expectations. Last fall, they were the AP Preseason No. 1 team. A brutal four-game road stretch and a rash of defensive injuries (20 different players were forced to start in the first eight games alone) made their 10-3 finish a fair accomplishment when all was said and done. Two studs depart the offense for the NFL - QB Matt Stafford was the first overall pick of the draft. He hands the keys to fifth-year senior Joe Cox, who has waited for three years to get his chance. In a way, it looks like this could be like 2005, when D.J. Shockley led his team to an SEC title in his only season. Cox has good accuracy and is a strong competitor and leader.
On the other end, the Bulldogs are in Florida's division. That means they'll have to figure out how to win the World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party on defense. That unit yielded an unsightly 38 or more points five times and only forced 18 turnovers in 11 games against D-IA teams. Eight starters return, and there is plenty of depth thanks to the injury issues in 2008. On offense, Cox loses stud RB Knowshon Moreno and leading receiver Mohamed Massoquoi, but everyone else returns. The O-line returns all five from a unit that had its issues (youth-related, mostly) in 2008.
ASK the bookie? - The expectations have the potential to be raised or lowered immediately - the Bulldogs open the season at Oklahoma State in a game where they will be the underdog. Never underestimate Richt on the road - he's an astounding 30-4 in true road games. The Dawgs play only three true SEC road games, so the schedule looks favorable for a nice run if they can navigate OSU and a trip in from revenge-minded Arizona State. Oddly enough, they only play one SEC home game between Sept. 12 and Nov. 14. Don't be shocked if Georgia wins 10 games again, but Florida looks a little bit better. Richt has done this before, though...
KENTUCKY
Expectations are varying this fall for UK, as Rich Brooks enters his seventh season as optimistic as ever that the Cats are close to turning the corner in the rugged SEC East. Brooks called this his best recruiting class yet, and the Cats are one of only three BCS schools who have won three straight bowl games. Behind Florida and Georgia, expectations are mixed in the East. A few so-called wiseguys have the Cats going as low as last, which is where they finished last year (at 2-6, and winless in the division). The Bookie is calling for a much more solid job. First, the negatives: UK's defense loses six starters from a unit that yielded just 23 ppg last season, including DE Jeremy Jarmon, who failed a routine drug test after spring practice. The offense often was overwhelmed, scoring just 14 ppg in the last five SEC games to finish 106th in total offense.
That offense returns nine starters, however, and both units were rocked by injuries last fall. UK lost 38 starts, ranking in the nation's top 20. QB Mike Hartline has impressed those around the UK camp with his improved accuracy in the offseason, allowing replacement Randall Cobb to move back to his natural WR position. Will Fidler is the capable backup at QB if Hartline continues to disappoint. For the first time in Brooks's tenure, UK has SEC-type defenders in the first two units, so capable backups are in place if injuries set in again. Many got experience last season, and with top-flight SEC players at LB (Micah Johnson) and corner (Trevard Lindley), the Cats have noticeably upgraded their athleticism and depth in the secondary.
ASK the bookie? - UK was involved in eight games last season that were decided by a touchdown or fewer. In order for the Cats to get over the hump and be relevant in the SEC East, the offense has to improve. UK should win all four of its non-league games. After a stiff early slate that involves games in four straight weeks against Florida, Alabama, at South Carolina and at Auburn, things lighten up. UK plays two non-BCS teams sandwiched around Mississippi State, all in Lexington, before finishing in November with the other three SEC East rivals. The Bookie is bullish on Brooks - and thinks eight regular season wins is quite possible this season, which would be Brooks's best yet.
SOUTH CAROLINA
For the second straight season, South Carolina fizzled down the stretch in 2008. The Gamecocks finished with three straight defeats after a 7-3 start. Margin of defeat? 118-30. Fifth-year coach Steve Spurrier has recruited well enough to be in position to compete in the SEC East, but getting his players to translate on the field has not happened yet. 'The Visor' now will give it a go with six new assistant coaches, just 11 returning starters and seven scholarship seniors. USC also lost only 12 starts to injury and scored just 20.8 ppg, which would have to qualify as Spurrier's worst offensive season in college since at least the Duke days of the 1980s. On the positive side, there's nowhere to go but up with the rush offense, which was dead last in the league, averaging just 88 ypg. With no infantry unit, it was easy for opponents to hone in on the pass, and overmatched freshman Stephen Garcia obliged, tossing EIGHT interceptions in just 65 attempts. He'll be the starter come fall, and there is no Division I-A experience behind him.
Four other starters return on offense, including three linemen. Four running backs figure to fight for time at TB, and there is healthy depth at WR. On the other side, six starters return to the aggressive 4-2-5, which was much better against the run in 2008 (only 3.6 ypc). The Gamecocks blitzed frequently, which helped them amass 31 sacks, but there isn't much depth in the young secondary, which could lead to more zone coverage if the starters show some attrition. Standout kicker Ryan Succop must also be replaced.
ASK the bookie? - Two tough road games out of the box (at N.C. State and Georgia) will tell Spurrier a lot of what he needs to know. Four straight home games should allow USC to once again get on the cusp of bowl eligibility. But this could turn into 2007 and 2008 all over again, as the Gamecocks figure to be favored in no more than two of their final six games. Could this be Spurrier's first losing season?
TENNESSEE
Few sportswriters outside of the Knoxville area will have it better than their beat writing friends who cover the Volunteers. That is, if new 33-year old head coach Lane Kiffin continues to be the quote machine that he has been for the last eight months. He's accused Florida coach Urban Meyer of cheating, made statements belittling Georgia's recruiting efforts and was accused (he denied it) telling another recruit if he chose South Carolina "he'd be pumping gas the rest of his life," like all other players from that state who had gone to South Carolina. Kiffin claims he was just kidding, but he wasn't joking when he also said that not everyone is cut out for the new UT program. There were, at last count, ELEVEN departures since spring ball started. His father, Monte Kiffin, architect of the "Tampa Cover 2" defense, came on to run the defense after 13 seasons with the Bucs. Jim Chaney, the offensive coordinator during the high-scoring Drew Brees years at Purdue, will be the OC here.
The biggest concern is at QB, where the Vols threw for more interceptions than touchdowns. Both Johnathan Crompton and Nick Stephens are back, but the dropoff at that position from Erik Ainge's 2007 numbers probably cost Phil Fulmer his job. UT returns seven starters from an offense that scored just 17 ppg (nearly half the 33 ppg in 2007). Stephens seems to be the best fit for Kiffin's system, though Crompton figured to be the starter out of spring. Stay tuned. Watch for incoming freshman Bryce Brown out of the backfield; many were calling him the nation's top overall recruit. On the other side, the Vols yielded just 17 ppg and 2.8 yards per carry. In a 5-7 season, these numbers were all the more impressive, as the defense ranked No. 3 in the country. UT recovered only three fumbles last fall, a number that almost has to go up. Good talent (including stud SS Eric Berry, one of the best ever to wear Vol orange) is at all levels and will be paramount to helping the offense learn its way. PK Daniel Lincoln had a small dropoff last fall, but was a Frosh All-American in 2007.
ASK the bookie? - The Vols have eight games in friendly Neyland Stadium, which should be enough for them to get above .500 after a brief slipup. The Vols probably won't do much better than seven wins, but that should be enough to get them back into the bowl picture in Kiffin's first season.
VANDERBILT
Bobby Johnson's eighth season in Nashville could be his best yet, according to optimistic Nashville observers. The Commodores finally went bowling last season, their first postseason appearance since 1982. They won that game, 16-14 over Boston College in Nashville, much the same way that they won their six regular season games - with big plays on defense. The 'Dores did not have many expectations heading in 2008, as just nine starters returned, only three on defense. Instead, Johnson piloted them to a 5-0 start (despite ranking last in offense and 10th in defense in the SEC) by taking advantage of some opponents' miscues. The Commodores lost six of seven to end the season, but the good start allowed them a bowl opportunity and the first winning season since the aforementioned 1982 team. Now, Vandy returns 18 (!) starters and between 13-15 senior starters (depends on who you listen to) from a group brimming with confidence after its 2008 campaign.
There will be a three-way battle to figure out who the quarterback will be. Two return, and a redshirt frosh joins the mix. All five O-linemen return and Vandy has upgraded a bit at both WR and RB. On defense, all of the front seven return from a well-coached unit that rarely missed tackles en route to yielding less than 20 ppg. Consistent? It's hard to get more consistent than a team that held everyone on their schedule between 10 and 24 points! (sans Florida, which put up its average 42). Yes, 11 of 13 Vandy foes scored between 13 and 24 points (Duke only had 10 in its win at Vandy). This is the first time Vandy has had quality D-line depth, which goes a long way toward competing down the stretch in the SEC, something the 'Dores could not do last season. The secondary has enough punch coming back (20 interceptions, second in the league in 2008) that they figure to hold their own.
ASK the bookie? - It's hard not to root for Vandy, knowing that they go into each season playing against a stacked deck because of academic requirements. The Commodores are the only team in the country that plays 12 straight weeks and does not have back-to-back home games. The offense (19 ppg) was last in the SEC and third-worst in the country and Vandy was 109th in third-down conversions. If they can keep the defense off the field and fresher, then VU will benefit greatly. Don't underestimate sly Johnson, who will surely field bigger offers at the end of this season, another one where Vandy figures to win six games and get another bowl chance. Trying to handicap this team can be tough because they were totally outplayed in at least three of their first five 2008 wins.
WEST
ALABAMA
Well, that didn't take long. Nick Saban had been in Tuscaloosa less than two seasons before elevating the Tide to No. 2 in the country after five weeks and No. 1 at the end of the regular season. Losses to Florida in the SEC Championship and Utah in the bowl game took some of the shine off a 12-0 start, but back-to-back top-three recruiting classes ensure that the Crimson Tide are a force to be reckoned with for years to come. The Tide do lose seven starters off the 2008 unit that scored 30 ppg. Of biggest concern is losing John Parker Wilson, the school's all-time leading quarterback. Junior Greg McElroy will be the starter; none of the backups appear ready to appear in the opener against Virginia Tech. Three O-line starters depart and RB Glen Coffee left for the NFL a year early, but the running game scored 32 touchdowns and ran for 186 ypg (4.6 ypc) last season. The dropoff doesn't figure to be severe as Saban's first two recruiting classes gets another year under their belts. Sophomore wideout Julio Jones was nothing short of dominant late last season as he started to get familiar with the college game.
The concern certainly doesn't lie on the other side, as Kirby Smart's defense returns nine starters from a group that held six teams to single-digits in 2008. The Crimson Tide also gave up 2.7 yards per carry and 14 ppg on their third-ranked defense. The one weakness (?) would be a pass rush ranking only seventh in the SEC last year with 26 sacks. All key members of the special teams return and that should be one of the five or 10 best units in the nation and probably responsible for a win or two during the 2009 season.
ASK the bookie? - The Tide went through last season unbeaten. They open in Atlanta again with Virginia Tech, and also play at Ole Miss in what figure to be the two stiffest tests. But Bama should be favored in every game except maybe the trip to Oxford. Georgia drops off the schedule and Arkansas, Tennessee and LSU come to Bryant-Denny Stadium. If McElroy can improve upon his impressive spring, the Tide have a shot at winning at least 10 games.
ARKANSAS
Bobby Petrino win 41 of his 50 games in Louisville, elevating that program to national-title contender before he left after the 2007 Orange Bowl. He lasted less than a year with the NFL Falcons before landing on his feet in Fayetteville. Now Petrino is at it again, as last year's Hogs went 5-7 but underwent a major facelift in his first season. After blowout losses to Alabama, Texas and Florida (and narrow wins against Western Illinois and UL-Monroe before that), Arkansas was much more competitive. The Hogs won in Auburn, knocked off unbeaten Tulsa and also beat LSU in Little Rock. Three of the last four losses (to Kentucky, Ole Miss and Mississippi State) were by a combined six points.
QB Ryan Mallett (a 21-year old Texarkana native who started as a freshman at Michigan before the coaching change) has three years of eligibility under Petrino when he goes under center this fall. His performance will likely affect how the offense does, as there is plenty of firepower at the skill positions. The top five RBs and top six receivers all return. The O-line, a weakness after allowing 46 sacks last fall, gets a bit of restructuring after two players depart. On the other side, the Razorbacks yielded an SEC-worst 22 touchdowns allowed through the air, as well as 32 points and 4.6 ypc. But nine starters and the top 10 tacklers are all back. The secondary gave up a lot of big plays last season but is more experienced this time around. John L. Smith, a former head coach at three schools, takes over the special teams, which can only help.
ASK the bookie? - The Hogs play a brutal six-week stretch starting Sept. 19, with games against Georgia, at Alabama, against Texas A&M in Arlington, Auburn at home, at Florida and at Ole Miss. Things get much easier from there, but will the Hogs be healthy enough and the confidence intact for the closing push? It's tough to bet against Petrino, especially now that he's had a year to implement his way of doing things - which has worked for him at the college level. Expect no less than one semi-major upset, perhaps at Bama or Ole Miss, and at least seven or eight wins.
AUBURN
Those on the plains want to remember the 2004 season, where Gene Chizik was Tommy Tuberville's defensive coordinator on the unbeaten team that went 13-0. Chizik went on to run the Texas defense and guide it to an unbeaten 2005 season. He eventually went to Iowa State, where he was head coach of the Cyclones the last two seasons, ending up with a 5-19 record and 10 straight losses. Perhaps it was a surprising hire, especially given that Tuberville, despite winning or sharing five SEC West crowns in 10 years, resigned under immense pressure after a loss to Alabama (his first after six straight wins). Chizik brought in offensive guru Gus Malzahn from Tulsa and plucked Ted Roof from Minnesota, where he dropped the Gophers' ppg from 36.7 to 24.8 in his one season in Minneapolis.
The Tiger offense averaged a shade of 300 yards per game and only 17 ppg, but no clear answer in spring came about who the QB will be once the season starts. Wideout was also unsettled, though the O-line should be bigger and RB Ben Tate appears ready to shoulder the running load. The Aubbie defense should once again (17 ppg last four seasons) be stingy. Up front, last season's young bunch allowed 4.1 ypc, the highest since 1995! Three starters return and there figures to be a marked improvement. All four starters return in the secondary, as well as two of the three linebackers.
ASK the bookie? - Auburn's schedule is favorable early. All four non-conference games are at Jordan-Hare Stadium. The Tigers don't leave home until an Oct. 3 trip to Tennessee. If Chizik can get the experienced players to buy into his new schemes and systems, then Auburn has a shot at six wins and bowl eligibility.
LOUISIANA STATE
Last season's 8-5 mark was a significant dropoff from the 2007 national championship season, but there was plenty of youth in Baton Rouge. Embarrassing losses to Florida, Georgia and Ole Miss were only made easier to swallow by the 38-3 rout of favored ACC foe Georgia Tech in the Chick-Fil-A (nee Peach) Bowl. The last time LSU finished 8-5, they came back and won the national title the next season (2003). Fifth-year coach Les Miles has addressed the two shortcomings from last fall: subpar quarterback play and defense. Athletic sophomore Jordan Jefferson was MVP of the bowl game and established himself as the No. 1 QB heading into fall. Well-regarded new defensive coordinator John Chavis (a longtime Tennessee coordinator) appears to have brought some organization to the defense.
Seven starters return to an offense that scored 30 ppg despite the lack of experience at QB. Last year's starter for most of the season, Jarrett Lee, backs up Jefferson, and top dual-threat QB Russell Shephard, a true freshman, was in for the spring. The Tigers have proven big-play capability at RB and WR, and 79 career starts return on the offense line. Six starters return from a defense that yielded 25 ppg last fall, including 103 total against Florida and Georgia. Three starters depart from the D-line and that will be a concern, but LSU always recruits well so expect some guys to step in and become standouts. The linebackers are slightly improves, and there is a lot of depth in a now-experienced secondary which struggled to just eight interceptions last year, an SEC-low. The kicker and punter both depart.
ASK the bookie? - Jefferson appears ready to step in and guide the potentially-explosive LSU offense. The SEC West is a bit tougher at the top this fall, but LSU appears ready to be a major player again, despite November trips to Alabama and Mississippi. Going to Georgia and hosting Florida make this schedule possibly the toughest in the league, but don't look for Miles to look for excuses. LSU should be 4-0 before facing the two SEC East foes that torched the Tigers last fall. Expect a minimum of nine wins, even with this schedule, if the defense and Jefferson both progress.
MISSISSIPPI
Well, that didn't take long (even less than Alabama!). Houston Nutt took over last fall after resigning under pressure at Arkansas and immediately raised the bar in Oxford. David Cutcliffe was fired after FIRST losing season in 2004 - Ed Orgeron lost more games every year than Cutcliffe ever lost. The Rebs righted a wrong by bringing in Nutt and in his first season, he piloted them to nine wins, including an upset in The Swamp of national-champion Florida. The four losses were all by seven points or less (19 points combined). There are 15 starters returning and most think the Rebs, because they host Alabama on Oct. 10, are the favorite to win the division.
The explosive offense is led by Jevan Sneed, who should improve on his 2,762 yards, 26 TD's and 13 INT's of a year ago. The top five rushers return from last fall, including 5-8 dual threat Dexter McCluster, a wideout who led the team in rushing because of his TB/QB responsibilities in the "Wild Rebel" formation. The offense was explosive and balanced (32 ppg) and the only concern is replacing three linemen. Eight starters return to a maturing defense that lowered its ppg from 28 in 2007 to 20 last fall under standout defensive coordinator Tyrone Nix. The Rebs allowed just 2.8 ypc last fall, a number helped by them leading America in tackles for loss.
ASK the bookie? - There isn't an SEC team with a more manageable schedule than Ole Miss. The season opens up at rival Memphis, whom they have beaten the last four years. The SEC road trips are to South Carolina, Vandy, Auburn and Mississippi State, and Florida drops off the slate. Ole Miss figures to be favored in every game as long as the Rebels stay healthy. You can draw your own conclusions from there as to how you think their season will end.
MISSISSIPPI STATE
The Sylvester Croom Era in Starkville came to a crashing thud after last season. It came just one year after a stunning 8-5 record and a 2007 Liberty Bowl win, in addition to Croom winning SEC Coach of the Year. But the woefulness of the Bulldog power-I offense eventually did Croom in, and he resigned after a 4-8 season and a 45-0 loss to Ole Miss in the Egg Bowl. Croom's offense never finished above 96th nationally in his five seasons. The Bulldogs were 115th in scoring and 113th in total offense last fall, so a change had to be made. Into town comes Dan Mullen, the former Florida offensive coordinator who worked with Urban Meyer since both were at Bowling Green 10 years ago. Former Texas A&M offensive coordinator Les Koenning will help Mullen implement the high-tech spread-option attack. So excited are MSU fans that a school-record 31,000-plus came to watch the spring game. Despite the offensive woes, the Bulldogs were merely two missed field goals and a muffed punt away from a 7-5 record.
Senior QB Tyson Lee ran the spread in both high school and JUCO, so he'll get the first shot. Check the status of reliable RB Anthony Dixon, who should again approach 200 carries. He got a DUI in July and could face a suspension. Losing him would be a damaging blow to an offense that is short on playmakers. Mullen wants TWELVE receivers to rotate in and out of his complex offense. He brings in seven new faces this fall. He also wants his five best O-linemen playing together, regardless of what their natural position is. On defense, MSU performed well for most of the season, considering the offense didn't help them any. Slick Carl Torbush takes over but only four starters return. Several JUCOs will try to help stop the run (162 yards per game, 4.3 ypc vs. I-A opposition), but the pass defense is a huge question mark at best, as three starters depart the secondary.
ASK the bookie? - Mullen is optimistic he can turn things back around, and the 2007 season proves it's possible. But this team is heads and shoulders worse than everyone in its division right now. All six FBS teams who invade Starkville in 2008 were bowl participants. Figure on the Bulldogs to be an underdog in every game, with the chance of winning 1 or 2 outside of the opener against Jackson State..
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