ARKANSAS STATE
Steve Roberts returns to Jonesboro for his eighth season in charge of the Red Wolves/Indians. ASU led the country with only one missed start to injury in 2008, and they were plus-9 in turnovers. Still, they were only 6-6 and snubbed when it came time to pick Sun Belt at-large bowl eligible teams. The Red Wolves did win at Texas A&M last fall, and Doug Ruse is sticking with the third year of his unconventional, no-huddle smashmouth, 2-back offense that was 18th nationally in rushing yards. ASU hasn't been bowling since 2005, but the return of three studs for their senior season makes it absolutely possible that they go again in 2009.
QB Corey Leonard, a dual-threat, RB Reggie Arnold, who ran for 1,074 yards, and DE Alex Carrington (NFL scouts are interested) are back to spearhead the show. Only three O-linemen are back but all of the projected starters check in at 300 or more pounds. The top two receivers caught 32 passes each, as Leonard threw for 2,347 yards last year, using his mobility since the line didn't give him much time to throw. On defense, Carrington was largely responsible for ASU holding foes to just 3.9 yards per carry. The D-line is the best in the Sun Belt, and the linebackers and secondary aren't the biggest or most physical, but they do have speed. Kicker Josh Arauco is the best in the league, and a candidate for the Lou Groza Award.
ASK the bookie? - This is Arkansas State's best chance to win the Sun Belt under Roberts. League favorite Troy comes to town early (Sept. 26) after a bye, so the Jonesboro boys will know before the calendar turns to October what their chances are in the league and for a bowl. Keep an eye on Roberts, as this will be his best chance to parlay a good season into a better job. Road games at Nebraska, Iowa and Louisville won't be easy, but ASU could easily cover large tariffs with this offense.
FLORIDA ATLANTIC
Howard "The Pipe" Schnellenberger continues to grow his prepubescent program in Boca Raton (or, Fort Lauderdale, where the current home stadium stands for a couple more years, if you prefer). This will be the ninth season of football for the Owls, and the last two have resulted in bowl victories after a solid stretch of football in the last six weeks of the season (9-3 last two years in the last six regular season games, 11-3 if you include the bowls). The Owls figure to be exciting to watch, as they gave up 28 or more points eight times last year and scored 40 or more three times. The offense figures to improve because senior QB Rusty Smith should be healthy for what is seemingly his eighth season. He's thrown for 8,198 yards and 62 scores at FAU, and adds former NFL'er and Schnellenberger QB at Louisville Jeff Brohm as the QB coach to help spice up the offense. Most of the receiving threats and three starting linemen return.
On defense, this FAU unit needs help. The top nine tacklers departed from aforementioned group that yielded 28-plus in eight games, and just three starters return for ninth-year DC Kirk Hoza. The Owls recorded just 13 sacks and ranked 110th in tackles for loss. The lone good news is that in the Sun Belt, FAU isn't the only team that's worried about its defense coming into fall camp.
ASK the bookie? - FAU has its annual paycheck games, though this year there are only two of them. The Owls open up at Nebraska and South Carolina. After that, the Owls could well be favored in each of their next seven games. It all depends on how much the defense develops and whether Smith and the offensive weapons can stay healthy. The Bookie never doubts "The Pipe".
FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL
You have to wonder what Mario Cristobal was getting himself into. He saw firsthand what sort of mess he took over when he was hired as the head coach at FIU before the 2007 season. The Panthers hit absolute rock-bottom - it could literally get no worse (maybe that's what he was thinking?) after the winless 2006 slate. Cristobal witnessed the low point, a 35-0 loss to Miami in which there was a slew of fights and suspensions - some on the FIU side of which carried into the 2007 season. The Panthers didn't bother to show up and/or cover in any of their last five games, each of which they were a dog. After five games, he surely must have had the same second-thoughts. FIU had been outscored 210-28 (or an average of 42 to 5.6). But progress would come, as the offense scored 23 ppg in the last six games, and the losing skid that dated to 2005 was finally snapped in the season finale against North Texas.
Last year, the Panthers ranked only 96th in total offense but that was significantly-higher than the 118th of 2007. Second-year offensive coordinator Bill Legg's spread should continue to improve as nine starters are back on that side of the ball. Senior QB Paul McCall was solid and steady last fall, the O-line returns four starters and the receivers should be decent. The rushing game, which ranked 107th nationally (2.8 ypc) needs to establish a threat; that's the weakness heading in. On the other side, DC Phil Galiano must replace six starters. Remember, the Panthers lost 41 starts to injury (11th in the nation), so some depth was developed last year out of necessity. Graduation hit the D-line and secondary hardest. The linebackers and special teams are near the top of the Sun Belt.
ASK the bookie? - Because of their league and win/loss record, Cristobal would never get national coach-of-the-year looks for his effort in building this program, but the job he's done has been beyond good. It should continue to result in more covers and more victories this fall. Trips to Alabama and Florida early and late could be decimating, and four of the first five are on the road. If Cristobal can keep spirits high, FIU could break .500 for the first time in its short football history.
LOUISIANA-LAFAYETTE
The administration doesn't like La.-Lafayette, or Louisiana-Lafayette, or UL-Lafayette, or U-La-La... they prefer 'Louisiana'. The Bookie wants to give it a year to catch on, as it still looks like the rotation will say 'UL-Lafayette' in Vegas or offshore. Whatever you want to call Ricky Bustle's team, call them consistent. The Ragin' Cajuns have won six games in three of the last four seasons, but have still never played in a bowl. This season, they lose stud QB Michael Desormeaux and RB Tyrell Fenroy. It will be interesting to see who emerges.
Ron Hudson stays on as the offensive coordinator, the first time since 2005 that an OC stays more than one year for Bustle. Hudson won't have to worry about his O-line, which returns intact and is probably the best in the SBC. Three QB's will wage a battle for the job into fall. A RB-by-committee approach could be the way Hudson starts, as well, until one emerges as the man. The defense returns nine starters and could be a real strength. A barrage of injuries forced U-La-La to develop depth, especially at linebacker, where injuries took the biggest toll last fall. The secondary has some speed and skill, but the defense gave up 34 ppg last fall and was gashed for 5.3 yards per carry.
ASK the bookie? - U-La-La faces two parts of the schedule that will make things difficult. In September, the Cajuns host K-State before trips to LSU and Nebraska. After a bye and a trip in from North Texas, they play four of their next five SBC games on the road. That will probably seal ULL's fate and keep it out of a bowl once again, though if skill players develop, then don't be surprised if Bustle wins at least six games (again).
LOUISIANA-MONROE
Wily Charlie Weatherbie returns for his seventh season in Monroe still awaiting that breakout season. Many thought it was possible in 2005, and they had Arkansas beat in the second game last year but never really recovered after blowing a late lead and missing a field goal for the win in Little Rock. Weatherbie sensed that the 3-3-5 defense could be a good fit for his defense, which has good athleticism and quickness and often confuses opponents with its pre-snap looks. When New Mexico let go of Rocky Long, Weatherbie immediately brought in UNM defensive coordinator Troy Reffert to try to get the 3-3-5 installed during the spring. Without much depth or size up front, it was only natural to get it up and running before the fall.
The War Hawks (nee Indians) forced only 13 turnovers last fall, ranked 109th against the run and gave up SIX yards per carry. The D-line is one of the better ones in the league, with three senior starters. Nine starters return in all on defense. On the other side, explosive QB Kinsmon Lancaster departs, but he often created off-field trouble. Weatherbie, who also calls the plays, installed a hurry-up, no-huddle attack in the spring. He's hoping it will allow whoever wins the QB job to get big-play wideouts Darrell McNeal and Anthony McCall the ball. The veteran O-line was not used to the tempo at the end of spring, though, and that deserves monitoring into September. Tough RB Frank Goodin figures to threaten 1,000 yards rushing.
ASK the bookie? - Weatherbie figured he needed to make some changes to try to get the War Hawks to a bowl for the first time ever. They lost more starts to injury than anyone in I-A football in 2008, but early season trips to Texas and Arizona State could create another slew of injuries. Best case shows UL-Monroe winning seven games, but it looks like five wins is more likely for the hard-trying Weatherbie, unless a surprise emerges at QB.
MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE
Rick Stockstill starts his fourth season in Murfreesboro optimistic that this is the best team he's had yet, including the only bowl team in MTSU history (2006). The primary reason is that he's got a full allotment of scholarships given out, meaning the Blue Raiders should finally have the depth to compete for 12 games in the Sun Belt and with a demanding non-league schedule. New offensive coordinator Tony Franklin re-emerges three hours to the north of the scene of his last mishap, as he was let go after one-half season at Auburn when the Tigers either couldn't buy into his spread or refused to execute it.
Either way, the personnel exists for the Blue Raiders to cause serious problems for SBC foes in the spread. QB Dwight Dasher returns to start after sitting behind Joe Craddock last fall. The Bookie disagreed with Dasher being the backup, as he ably replaced Craddock after he went down in 2007, leading MTSU to a 5-1 record and 43 points or more in three of those six games. Everyone besides Craddock returns to the MTSU offense. On defense, seven starters return to an undersized but speedy group. The veteran secondary boasts experience and depth, and CB Alex Suber largely blanketed first-round draft choice Darrius Heyward-Bey in MTSU's upset of Maryland in 2008. The concern is greatest at linebacker. How big is it? Middle ranks in the top-half of the SBC or better at every single category on both sides except for linebacker.
ASK the bookie? - The Blue Raiders lose just 11 lettermen, the fewest in the league. It will interesting to see how its veterans (and its heretofore unseen spread) play in the opener at Clemson, as well as the next week at home against Memphis and at Maryland following that. Don't be surprised if Middle wins at least one of those games against an unsuspecting foe. Conference play starts after that, and a Tuesday night trip to Troy on Oct. 6 could tell the story for Middle this season. Watch how the Raiders react in a home game against Mississippi State (first SEC team to ever visit a Sun Belt venue) after the Troy game to get a good gauge on how to read them in the second half.
NORTH TEXAS
Things can't get any worse in Denton, can they? The successes of the first half of this decade under Darrell Dickey seem a long long way away, as the Mean Green haven't been bowling since 2004, the last of four straight New Orleans Bowl bids. Two years under high school phenom Todd Dodge (who came right to UNT after winning state titles at Dallas Southlake Carroll High) have largely been a joke. Now son Riley Dodge takes over at QB; he was responsible for some of his dad's success at Southlake Carroll and is very familiar with that spread offense. Regardless of who runs the offense, it will all be for naught again if the defense doesn't get dramatically better. UNT yielded 482 yards per game and 48 ppg, both of which were the worst numbers in the country. It literally can't get any worse. UNT had just 11 sacks and finished 111th in tackles for loss.
Any defensive strength has to be considered the linebacking corps, which could be their best since the school joined the Sun Belt. But the undersized secondary allowed 34 touchdown passes last fall and could be equally torched again if the Mean Green don't come up with a credible pass rush, something that is far from a sure thing when looking at last fall's numbers. The offense should be immensely improved, but UNT only ranked 102nd in scoring last year and only eclipsed 30 points once, in a 51-40 win at Western Kentucky, a team that was transitioning into I-A status. All five starters return to the O-line to help coach and son Dodge. Though Riley's got a whole new group of receivers, quick RB Cam Montgomery should easily go over 1,000 yards and can keep defenses from totally selling out against the run.
ASK the bookie? - Some think Dodge can get things turned around. The Bookie saw UNT a few times last year and has seen better defense in soft-core porno. Until things change on that side of the ball, it doesn't matter what kind of offensive mastermind Dodge is reputed to be. The only game where UNT looks to be favored is against revenge-minded WKU at home on Halloween - but don't chart that one just yet, either.
TROY
The Trojans have plenty to look forward to in 2009. Perhaps most noteworthy is their lack of fear in playing the big boys. Larry Blakeney is set to start his 19th year at Troy, taking the program from Division II to I-AA to I-A in 2001. He's won 143 games in 18 seasons, and the Trojans have beaten two Big 12 teams at home in the last five years. In 2008, the Trojans had more first downs and yards than Ohio State after three quarters before eventually succumbing in Columbus. Several weeks later, Troy was beating LSU 31-3 (!) early in the third quarter before the Tigers ralled to score the last 37 points and win 40-31. Troy has won eight games in each of the last three seasons, and is the one school in the SBC that has turned into a 'Gonzaga' of sorts; a big fish in a little pond (conference) that is seemingly unafraid to play anyone. This year, the Trojans travel to Florida in the second week in what will likely one of only two times they'll be a dog this year (figure them to catch less than 10 points at Arkansas in mid-November).
Last year, 28-year old new offensive coordinator Neal Brown took a unit hit hard with graduation losses and didn't let it miss a beat in his modified spread offense. Two QBs started last year, both capably, but any debate was squashed in the spring: senior Levi Brown will be the QB this fall, as Jamie Hampton will redshirt and have two years of eligibility. Brown threw for more than 2,000 yards in seven games, with 15 scores and just three interceptions. Eight starters are back on the offense, but both tackles depart, which is the big concern. On the other side, Troy recorded 42 sacks in 2008, ranking third in the country. Half of the starters return, and though graduation hit the secondary hard, there appear to be plenty of capable replacements ready to step in and contribute.
ASK the bookie? - Some things never change; Troy is going to be one of the best teams in the Sun Belt once again. Perhaps disconcerting is the fact that the last four years, the defending league champ has been the favorite - but not one time has that team defended. Games at Bowling Green (first-ever regular season game against a MAC team) and Florida won't give you an idea of how this team will play in the league. Circle Oct.6; it's a Tuesday night TV game against Middle Tennessee - the winner takes early control of the league race. Don't be surprised if Arkansas State throws a scare into Troy 10 days before in Jonesboro. Write down nine wins for the Trojans, and that should be enough for another Sun Belt title.
WESTERN KENTUCKY
The Hilltoppers become the 120th Division I-A team this fall (officially) as they join the Sun Belt in football. Seventh-year head coach David Elston hopes for progress, as the Toppers were competitive against Sun Belt foes in 2007 before going 0-5 against them last fall. WKU was just 2-10 last fall, and Kevin Wright and his no-huddle spread was ousted in favor of Walter Wells (O-line coach last fall) and a pro-style look that might keep some spread elements but will be more diverse overall. The Toppers threw more interceptions than touchdowns last fall, so one of four candidates will need to step up and take the job. With eight starters returning, the QB spot is the key for Western to ascend up the Sun Belt standings immediately.
Defensive coordinator Mike Dietzel takes over the spot he was in charge of in 2004 and 2005 and will stick with the 3-4 that the Toppers played last fall. The defensive line is his first major task, as all three starters depart. The linebackers should be a strength of the defense, which returns six starters and was not overmatched by any of its Sun Belt opponents last fall (except for North Texas; go figure).
ASK the bookie? - Western is the last team to open league play, taking a bye before an Oct. 10 home date against Florida International. At that point, the Toppers will likely be 1-3, but keep an eye on how competitive they are at Tennessee and Navy, in addition to the home date against South Florida. The FIU game should give bettors a baseline rating to work with, as most people (The Bookie included) are still a little in the dark of what Elston is doing in Bowling Green. Elston has had his contract extended through 2016 and has recruited well the last year or two, so expect WKU to continue to improve, even if it struggles a bit in its maiden Sun Belt voyage. |
