BOISE STATE
In two of the last three seasons, as WAC team has crashed the BCS party. Last season, Boise State won at Oregon and ended up 12-0, but the BCS didn't think that body of work was good enough (especially with Utah going from another non-BCS conference), so the Broncos lost a narrow decision in the Poinsetta Bowl to talented TCU, 17-16. The Broncos add a 13th game this season, which the NCAA allows to teams that play at Hawaii. The non-con schedule, therefore, includes five games. One is against a I-AA team, two are against overmatched MAC teams breaking in new coaches, and the other two give them a chance to impress voters nationwide. Oregon comes to town on Sept. 3 in the season opener on the blue carpet. The other potential 'loss' is when the Broncos travel to Tulsa, the defending C-USA regular season champ. The Broncos are now a dizzying 54-2 in WAC games since 2002, so it's a virtual certainty than you can chalk up eight wins there, right?
Well, let's start with the negatives: the Broncos have just FIVE seniors on the roster; only two of which project as starters heading into fall camp. Several new faces are expected to have to contribute on defense, but BSU was able to develop plenty of depth last season in 2008 thanks to blowout after blowout during the season. The Broncos gave up less than 13 ppg last fall and return the entire secondary. Running back Ian Johnson (the recipient of the scoring 'Statue of Liberty' play to beat Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl to culminate the 2006 unbeaten season - he proposed to his cheerleader girlfriend after the game) departs, as does top receiver Jeremy Childs, who went to the NFL early. But heady sophomore QB Kellen Moore threw for 3,486 yards and 25 scores with only 10 picks, seemingly playing like a senior rather than a freshman. The O-line is the big concern on that side of the ball, as there is little continuity heading into the preseason.
ASK the bookie? - Boise gets 13 cracks to impress BCS pollsters this time around. The Bookie doesn't like teams who try to cover the point spread to impress those folks, but that's a part of college football. The Broncos will certainly be laying points in every game (depending on Tulsa's record heading into the Oct. 14 game in Oklahoma) and the imposts will only get higher and higher the longer Boise stays unbeaten. With this schedule, even with all the youth, it's hard to envision more than one loss at the worst if everyone stays healthy.
FRESNO STATE
Pat Hill has had a largely successful run in the Central Valley of California in the last decade. Amazingly enough, he's never won the WAC title outright and hasn't even shared it in this decade. With Boise continuing on their runaway freight train-like status, it looks like the Bulldogs will likely be relegated to another minor bowl once again - if they do THAT well. The negatives? Fresno once again plays three BCS teams, all of them away from home. The Bulldogs are just 10-29-1 against the number (!) their last 40 on the board, dating back to 2005. They must replace a three-year starter at quarterback (there are three vying for the role, with no one having impressed in the spring), and the defense has to get a LOT better.
The Bulldogs were gashed to the tune of 5.6 ypc last fall, so perhaps the nine starters back might not be such a good thing. When it was all said and done, Fresno's defense was 108th against the run and 97th overall last year, easily the lows for the Hill era. The new defensive coordinator is trying to simplify the 4-3, and is looking for his two best players (DE Chris Carter and MLB Ben Jacobs) to come up with a pass rush without forcing many blitzes. The offense now has two coordinators, one for the rushing game and one for the passing game, to take the place of departed Doug Nussmeier (off to Washington HC Steve Sarkisian's staff). Three backs who had 113 or more carries last fall all return, as do three O-linemen and all but one of the leading receivers.
ASK the bookie? - A three-week stretch early (at Wisconsin, Boise at home, at Cincinnati) will likely tell you all you need to know about this version of the Bulldogs. Last fall, they lost a heartbreaker (13-10) at home to Wisconsin and went eight more straight games without covering the number. If this team starts to go bad early, pay attention to see if they are responding to Hill. If not, The Bookie thinks you might be able to bet against Fresno, no matter the line, for a few weeks until the number gets adjusted.
HAWAII
It's been a little more than a year-and-a-half since Hawaii played in the Sugar Bowl against Georgia. It only seems like more. In that time, the Rainbows (ok fine, the Rainbow Warriors but NOT the Warriors) have lost their head coach to SMU, record-setting QB Colt Brennan and eight other offensive starters, made six trips to the mainland and have overhauled their offensive playbook altogether. Second-year coach Greg McMackin was reprimanded by the university for using the derogatory word that describes homosexuals when talking about Notre Dame's dance in the bowl game at WAC media days last month. This time, he must replace nine DEFENSIVE starters, though that is his speciality. He's got an attacking, all-or-nothing style that he hopes to keep employing this fall, but it will be tough with the abundance of youth on that side of the ball.
UH has seven starters back on offense, including juco QB Greg Alexander. The senior isn't mobile, and with the line struggles, UH ranked dead-last in allowing 57 (!) sacks last fall. Expect Inoke Funaki, a much better runner than passer, to get more snaps under center this fall as the Rainbow Warriors try their hand at the single-wing (a far cry from June Jones's Red Gun). All six guys who had at least 20 carries last fall return. The Hawaii special teams were in the bottom-five in America last fall, and UH loses kicker Dan Kelly, who regressed to just 10-of-20 on field goals last fall. That area is an obvious concern heading into fall.
ASK the bookie? - Hawaii plays 13 games, so seven wins are needed for eligibility. After three non-conference games, the Rainbows play eight straight WAC games, then close with Navy and Wisconsin visiting the islands. They'll likely need to win at least one of those last two games (which is quite possible) to get to seven wins and bowl eligibility once more.
IDAHO
Robb Akey has been in the Palouse for more than a decade - whether that's the main reason he's back for a third season as Idaho head coach is uncertain. Akey's predecesers (Tom Cable, Nick Holt and Dennis Erickson) all left after short stints earlier this decade and all are doing bigger things currently. The Vandals play in the Kibbie Dome, the smallest stadium in all of Division-IA football. They joined the WAC in 2005 and have played 9-38 football since. Since the middle of 2006, Idaho is 1-20 in league games! There are 14 starters back, but when looking at least season's struggles (minus-14 turnovers, only two losses by less than 23 ppg, -151.6 yards per game in conference games), that might not be a good thing. The Vandals allowed 44 ppg and 5.7 yards per carry, both of which rank them near the bottom of the nation.
The offense returs all the key skill players except wideout Eddie Williams. Quarterback Nathan Enderle has shown flashes of brilliance, but his propensity to throw the ball to the wrong team (30 INT's in two years) has helped the Vandals dig deep turnover deficits the last two seasons. The big hole comes from the loss of four-year starting center Adam Korby. He and two other linemen must be replaced, no easy feat for an Idaho team that must score as much as possible to keep pressure off the defense. That unit, much like the offense, returns seven starters but figures to be outmanned again more times than not in defensive coordinator Mark Criner's 4-3.
ASK the bookie? - Idaho actually plays seven home games, the most they've had this decade. Also noteworthy is the recent uptick on the pointspread. It certainly bears noting that Idaho was on a 1-13 ATS run under Akey until covering four of the last six to finish last season. Whether that success against the spread can translate into more wins and losses is yet to be seen. The Vandals have been favored exactly four times since 2004, and lost outright both times they were favored in Akey's tenure, in 2007. This season, Idaho might be favored once or twice. Three wins would be a step forward.
LOUISIANA TECH
Like father, like son. Longtime Georgia football coach and athletic director Vince Dooley's son Derek has been in Ruston, La., less than three years. He took over before the 2007 season and took only two short seasons to get the Bulldogs back into a bowl for the first time since 2001 only the third time since 1978. Wanting to keep him around, the Louisiana Tech administration added the title 'athletic director' to his responsibilities. Sound familiar? Dooley takes after his daddy in several regards. Tech was able to win eight games last fall largely because of its ability to run the ball, stop the run and not make mistakes. The Techsters ran for 182 yards per game on 4.6 yards per carry, and allowed just 3.1 ypc. It also helps that they were plus-10 in turnovers and scored EIGHT (!) touchdowns via special teams or defense.
Nine starters return to the offense, including steady junior QB Ross Jenkins. After taking over in the middle of last season, he guided the Bulldogs to a 6-2 record despite completing only 53 percent of his passes and throwing for just seven scores. Jenkins only had three picks in 174 passes, helping the Bulldogs in the all-important turnover column. The Techsters lose most receivers, but dynamic 5-8 Phillip Livas (team-high 43 catches and three kick returns for touchdowns) is back. Many WAC observers rate both sides of the LT line as the best in the league. All linemen return on both sides. Senior FS Antonio Baker was an all-WAC choice last fall and will be the anchor in the secondary. All linebackers and corners must be replaced, an obvious concern.
ASK the bookie? - Dooley seems to have the program headed in the right direction, trying to recruit freshmen and not JUCOs, and the aforementioned turnover margin and ability to run and stop the run are all signs of well-coached teams. The non-conference schedule includes two trips to SEC West schools and no home games against I-A teams, but the Bulldogs should be competitive against everyone except Boise, LSU and (maybe) Auburn. That Sept. 5 opener on the Plains will be a game The Bookie watches with great interest; if the line comes too high, the (Bull)DOGS will certainly be worth a look.
NEVADA
Looking for a WAC team to give Boise some sort of game this fall? Then Reno is the right place. The "Biggest Little City in the World" also boasts perhaps the "Best Football Team Under the Radar" heading into 2009. The Wolfpack are only a few games above .500 since Chris Ault "re-took-over" the football team. He's now been the head coach three times (1976-1992, 1994-1995 and 2004-present), with his most recent stint coming as a self-appointment! He was the AD and fired Chris Tormey after the 2003 season despite the coach improving his record each season. The Bookie doesn't like guys who step over others to create their own success, so it was tough to root for the Wolfpack for awhile. Ault is already in the CFB Hall of Fame and vacated his AD job to take one final stab as the head coach. It looks like the pieces are in place for the 'Pack to challenge Boise, if not overtake the Broncos. ESPN was so intrigued by the matchup that they made sure the WAC set the schedule to put the game on Friday of Thanksgiving week, the final game of the year for Nevada.
WAC Player of the year Colin Kaepernick returns for his junior season to pilot the "Pistol" offense. He threw for 22 scores and just seven interceptions in 2008, while rushing for 1130 yards and 17 more scores! The Wolfpack return TWO running backs who have been over 1,000 yards rushing in the last two seasons. The O-line returns three starters, although losing a four-year starter at center is a main concern, as is a wide receiving corps that is devoid of much experience, though not talent. On defense, Reno switched to a 4-3 that helped key the sixth-best rushing defense in the country. Unfortunately, the secondary was routinely torched and gave up a nation's worst 318 yards per game passing. Those figures often lie, though, as Reno played Texas Tech and Missouri outside of the league last year, two pass-happy units. They allowed foes to hit less than 54 percent, while yielding 31 scores to 16 interceptions. Eight return in the seconday with starting experience, and Reno did have 100 (!) tackles for loss last fall.
ASK the bookie? - It's easy to see why ESPN was so interested in showing the top two teams in the league in a showcase spot; Reno played Boise to a multi-overtime, 69-67 loss two years ago before losing a narrow 41-34 game at home last fall. The Wolfpack have a chance to make an immediate statement in the season opener at Notre Dame; The Bookie will be very interested in taking anything in double-digits with Reno, a team that can trade blows with anyone. If a good result comes there, the genie might be out of the bottle - The Bookie likes Nevada to win 10 games this year and don't be shocked if the Wolfpack figures out a way to win in Boise to finish the regular season.
NEW MEXICO STATE
Hal Mumme and his "Air Raid" offense were given four years to have success - alas, despite moments of success, Mumme was let go after a ghastly 47-2 loss at Utah State to end the 2008 season. The Aggies enter their 50th straight year of football without having played in a bowl (Sun Bowl, 1960, a 20-13 win over aforementioned USU). Enter DeWayne Walker, the defensive coordinator the last three seasons, rather successfully, at UCLA. Walker figures to try to scale back the offense into more of a West Coast offense. He will be his own coordinator on defense. With the Aggies allowing 30 (!) rushing touchdowns last fall, he will need to scheme well, and fast, to slow things down for opponents who look at the Aggie defense as nothing more than mannequins.
The Aggies return only five offensive starters, including none of the key components of last year's "Air Raid". Former NFL QB Timm Rosenbach is the offensive coordinator after being unemployed last fall. Heading into the fall, nothing has been resolved at the all-important QB position, with three upstarts battling for the job. On defense, NMSU has seven starters back, with the strength coming at linebacker, where three senior starters return.
ASK the bookie? - The Bookie sees a dilemma when trying to decide whether the Aggies or Washington State have the most hopeless situation of all this fall. In the end, NMSU doesn't fall into that sort of despair, as the Aggies take advantage of their Hawaii trip to schedule a 13th game, presumably against I-AA Prarie View A&M. At least they'll win one game - but asking for much more in Walker's maiden voyage might be total optimism and nothing else.
SAN JOSE STATE
Dick Tomey has had a wildly successful coaching career. Taking San Jose State to a bowl game and winning it at New Mexico in 2006 helps add to his legacy. Losing three straight to end last season at 6-6 and without a bowl, however, could slow a lot of the momentum he's trying to build in getting this program to continue to climb the ladder of respectability. Optimists say that with seven defenders back from a stout bunch, SJSU should continue to at least be competitive on defense. The offense scored at least 30 points four times in the first nine games. The pessimists have a stronger argument, though. That same offense was held to 17 or fewer points in seven of the 12 games, including a home shutout (against Louisiana Tech) for the first time in 40 years! Three of the four who leave on defense were drafted into the NFL (something that quite undoubtedly has never happened in San Jose).
The offense appears to need the most help. Tomey is scrapping the spread in favor of a more traditional offense that will try some power running and utilize tight ends. Interestingly enough, he's hired an offensive coordinator (Steve Morton) who has spent 14 seasons calling the plays for the Arena Football League's San Jose SaberCats. Fixing the offense QUICKLY was the plan - but does hiring a guy who coached in a league where SCORES came quickly going to be the answer? None of the quarterbacks were anything better than mediocre in the spring, and though incumbent senior Kyle Reed has the job heading into fall, he could be set up to fail. The defense, despite returning seven, could have some dropoff with all of the talent that left for the next level. Two new sophomore cornerbacks will be initiated to I-A football early; if they can keep the CB level as close to last year as possible, then the Spartans could be competitive on defense alone.
ASK the bookie? - SJSU is the only team to play TWO BCS-winning squads from last season, and Merry Christmas, they come in the form of back-to-back games to open the season (at USC, vs. Utah). With a trip to Stanford in week three, the Spartans could make a decent account for themselves three times and still be 0-3. It will also be interesting to see how the Spartans adjust to the new FieldTurf at Spartan Stadium after 76 years of playing on grass. The Bookie will keep his eye on this team early.
UTAH STATE
Sometimes doing things the 'right' way just isn't good enough. Utah State fired Brent Guy after four seasons and a 9-38 record. Guy inherited a program that had less than 70 scholarship players four years ago and had to replace 22 lettermen. Instead of going the quick-fix JUCO route, Guy decided to go after freshmen and tried to build his program that way. He was fired at the end of last season, leaving successor Gary Andersen a full allotment of his 85 scholarship players and 16 starters. The potential is there for immediate success, and Andersen was aware of that when he decided to bring in eight JUCOs to help in 2009. Andersen was most recently the defensive coordinator at Utah, helping the Utes to five very good seasons on that side of the ball. He was the head coach at Southern Utah until 2003, so he will certainly use his knowledge of the state and region to try to recruit solid WAC talent to Logan. He's already authorized position changes for no less than 15 Aggies BEFORE fall practice.
Andersen is a defensive guy first, and the Aggies can certainly use his help there after allowing 35 ppg last fall. The corners are smallish and can be easily picked on, and there was little to no pass rush in 2008. Three of the front four return, so that could be considered a strength heading into camp. On offense, things look much more promising. Electric Diondre Borel returns for his junior season. He's one of only seven quarterbacks in the country that are back this year after posting team-high passing and rushing totals. New offensive coordinator Dave Baldwin comes over from New Mexico and has put together a modified spread, which Borel seemed to grasp without much difficulty. Having almost every O-lineman back, including stud senior center Brandon McFadden, also helps. Kicker and punter Peter Caldwell was steady last fall, and the entire core of the special teams units return.
ASK the bookie? - Guy left this program on very sturdy ground. If Andersen has much success this season, he'll likely bolt for a bigger job, ASAP. The schedule shows no non-con home games against I-A foes. Trips to Utah, Texas A&M and BYU likely mean a 1-3 start in September before league plays begins. USU is as unpredictable as anyone. If the Aggies don't adjust to the new ideas on both sides, they might struggle in league games... but a 4-4 league record is the most likely scenario - which means five wins in all, and unfortunately, no bowl bid.
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