Colts were 9 point chalk and did not cover by 6. This equals 2 points off their -3 point line. Now Colts should be -1. Pats have played well covering their 9.5 spread over the Dolphins beating Miami by 10. Fact Pats are playing utterly in sync thus we give them 2 points in the line for current playing form. Now our line has Pats at -1 at Indy. Add the Colts lost at least five crucial starters this season, and had to rely on a close fumble-safety call on Ryan Moats to clinch the victory. It also helped that the Texans botched a makeable field-goal. They have to prove they aren’t just the whipping boy of Lady Luck, and they’ll get their chance this weekend against a familiar foe. Knowing that we give Pats one more point and settle in our estimation of the line at -2 Pats, a 5 point difference from Vegas. For these reasons we take the Pats big here at +3)if it gets bet down to +2.5 or +2 buy the vig to +3 and hammer the NE Pats! Also lean on the over 49.
Bengals vs. Steelers -7
After flying under the radar for about 4 weeks the Steelers made a real statement last week after winning in Denver. The Bengals also had a big win after sweeping the Ravens in the season series. I think the ACF North title will come down to this game. Our first knee jerk reaction was this is a good line with none of the enticing ½ point leaning either way over or under that 7 point number. Vegas is not trying to lure you either way. In other words can Pitt beat the feisty Bengals at home by 7? We say more than likely but for 10% more juice we will put our hopes on the defending SB champion Steelers. The fact the Bengals handed the Ravs two underdog loses and pretty much ruined a highly viewed team for the ’09 season. The are still the X-factor meaning we don’t know just how good these guys are. Carson Palmer is playing very well with a front line that has given him time to make those accurate passes. The history between these teams is very dismal for Cincinnati.
Therefore buy the -.5 and Take Steelers -6.6 at -120 . We also like the over 41.5 points in this game because Bengals figure to score 18-21 and Steelers 24-28.
Broncos vs. Redskins +3.5
Have the Denver Broncos really fallen apart, their luck vanishing and on the slippery slop downhill? Thus being only favored by 3 ½ points? OK the got beat handily in back to back games against good teams and it looks like their 6-0 start was a fluke. Not so fast. They beat the Pats in OT at home before the slide. We are not willing to concede them as the has been up and coming team. They meet a mediocre Wash Redskins team in a cold weather stadium not unlike mile high home field in CO. The Redskins have not improved as much as the Broncos have declined. Therefore we are backing the Broncos to rebound here in our third game we are suggesting buying a ½ point to make it a very viable play.
Broncos comeback to earlier form and cover our bought down line to -3 at -120.
Eagles vs. Chargers -1.5
This is the last of the really big games this weekend. The Chargers have just put three wins together and seem to be getting Rivers the blocking he needs to pass with confidence. When they beat a good NY Giants by 1 in the last 20 seconds tells us the jitters are out of this team’s blood. They knew they had 2 minutes left with lots of yards in need and pulled it off leaving the Giants 18 seconds to go 45 yards for FG try. This was impressive as the Giants did not play poorly as they had in their previous 3 losses. Now Philly has to come way out west to face a hungry Chargers charged up team on a roll. Eagles played a lack luster loss to the Cowboys and now must face Chargers in SD. This may not bode well for McNab and company. The line opened at -3 and now is at -1.5 SD. The boys that carry a punch when they play a team they like the “so called” smart money think they know something we don’t well. These line dropping teams win at about 50% of the time so we see it as ‘so what’.
Take charged up Chargers at home playing well, lay the point and half.
Seahawks vs. Cardinals -8
Remember last season right about this time the Cards started playing exceptionally surprising football. Well trends run deep and the trigger has been pulled by the Cards. They had an all-star performance last week when Warner threw for the most yards yet this season and beat Chicago handily. Beating these Bears handily isn’t saying a lot but it is a tremendous boast to the entire Cardinals team. Seattle has been playing inconsistently all year but especially well at home and especially poor on the road which this game is. Seahawks will have to go from soggy Seattle grass to firm dry AZ grass, advantage Cards. The 8 point line is a bit of a concern but does not scare us off the play be it 8 or 8.5….
Lay the points and take the ‘on their way again Cards’
Saints vs. Rams +13.5
Our opinion of the undefeated Saints in no fluke and the real deal. Our opinion of the hard to believe how bad the Rams are is getting stronger every week. They still suck hard! Saints should toy with Rams and have a 14 point lead by half time. The game takes two halves and the Saints will then play on cruise control and Rams will be trying hard to not get embarrassed. St. Louis is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games. St. Louis is 1-17 SU in its last 18 games. St. Louis is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home. They got a bye week to study tape on the New Orleans Saints. Toilet paper and clean underwear was in short supply at the training facility of the Rams. OK so they have been working hard and have just won their first game but is it enough to come within 2 TDs of the #1 team in the NFL? We doubt it.
Lay the 13.5 points and take NO Saints.
|
